Talking Points Memo just posted a great round up of today's daily tracking polls. All of them now show Obama with upward momentum. Since these daily polls are done as rolling averages, it indicates that yesterday's financial shakeup and the more pointed media dissembling of the McCain talking points have finished off whatever bounce that McCain/Palin had left. Would not be surprising to see Obama pull ahead in the daily polls once the sample only reflects data from Monday onward.
Here's the polling data from the TPM:
http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpoi...
Gallup: McCain 47%, Obama 46%, with a ±2% margin of error. Yesterday, McCain was up 47%-45%.
Rasmussen: McCain 48%, Obama 47%, with a ±2% margin of error. yesterday, McCain was up 49%-47%.
Research 2000: Obama 48%, McCain 44%, with a ±3% margin of error. Yesterday, Obama was up 48%-45%
Hotline/Diageo: Obama 46%, McCain 42%, with a ±3.3% margin of error. Yesterday, Obama was up 44%-43%.
Adding these polls together and weighting them for larger sample sizes, the race is essentially a tie at Obama's 46.6% to McCain's 46.4% -- an improvement from yesterday, when the same math put McCain up by about a full percentage point.
That's the current snapshot of the national tracking polls. Very clearly, Obama's back on the upswing and the race is back into a veritable tie. The concern that I have is with the tightening race in swing states, particularly MI, WI, CO, and VA. Remains to be seen how the momentum shown in the national trackers translates at the state level.