As long as he runs as George Bush, both he and the Republicans are going to lose. It is not as if he has any choice since he doesn't have any accomplishments of his own. Tying himself to the Bush Administration accomplishments disasters is now beginning to strangle what little life was left in his campaign.
Barack Obama has no such baggage. He brings to the table a whole buffet.
The economy is not only going to destroy McCain it is going to take quite a few House seats that weren't already in jeopardy and perhaps an extra Senate seat or two. As long as the Democrats, in local advertising, pin the economy on them and then hang George Bush around the Republican candidate's neck like an anchor.
No matter how much propping up of Wall Street the Bush Administration does they have already lost Main Street. Joe and Jane Six-Pack are getting crushed. The vise has been tightening for years and they know who was minding the store the whole time.
After all of the payoffs to Iraqi's to keep the violence down, after all of the efforts to keep Iraq completely off the news, it is going to turn out to be an issue that won't gain them anything. And it will crush them because all of that wasted expense, and all of those lives lost, can still be tied around their necks.
And there is still going to be the fallout from Hurricane Ike. It isn't clear to me that there won't be issues making news concerning the aftermath right up to the election.
When you throw in the Sarah Palin fiasco as her teflon is wearing off and charges are beginning to stick - as long as we keep it up - the Republicans are going to pull in Dole/Kemp results.
No matter how many international crises the Bush Administration tries to throw out there to, in theory, help McCain it all ends up looking like just arrogant recklessness on the part of the Bush Administration.
All of these things are in Obama's favor. As much as they desperately need to make it a referndum on Obama on the experience meme it isn't going to work. One of the things that people across the country understand is that they know when to cut their losses. Inviting McCain to continue the arrogant recklessness along with dragging in a clueless, disinterested, extreme religious right stalking horse as the VP is a non-starter.
It is beyond stimulous checks and tax cuts, it is beyond "victory" in Iraq. It is over. Sure, there will be moments where they may feel they are gaining ground as they had recently. The Republicans know this too.
Somehow I find Megadeth's Symphony of Destruction to be appropriate here.