Anecdotal evidence is not a reliable predictor. I am a scientist, and I should know that. But it's hard to ignore what I've observed this summer.
I live in a lonely purple oasis in the midst of the deep red territory of Western Michigan. It's not uncommon to read a letter to the local paper proclaiming that one can't be a Christian and vote for Democrats. Our Representative, Republican Vern Ehlers, routinely gets bashed by writers to the local newspaper because he's too "liberal," even though he votes with Bush about as frequently as McCain. (In his previous life Ehlers was a physicist, so he doesn't pull any punches when telling people that our society uses too much energy.) We're right next door to Republican Pete Hoekstra's district, former chair of the House Intelligence Committee who went on Faux News to claim that we'd found the WMDs in Iraq. But judging by conversations and yard signs, it's going to be an Obama blowout here.
A few days ago a friend confided in me that he has never voted for a Democrat before. Never. He has an Obama sign in his front yard and tells me that he's almost to the point of calling himself a Democrat. "I supported Bush because of my faith," he said. "And once in office, he didn't do a thing about it. The Republicans used me for my vote and then betrayed me. Not any more. Where is their concern for the poor and underprivileged? What about the weak? How can a Christian support torture?" This is someone who argued vigorously for the Iraq War, and now admits he was wrong. The Matthew 25 Network is being built by and for people like him.
I've seen much of the same in friends of my parents who are lifelong Republicans, people who work the phone banks for Right to Life.
Others have posted diaries about yard signs, so I won't belabor the point. Regardless, the difference in yard sign numbers is striking. Wherever I go, I look for McCain yard signs, and I'm not finding many. I've driven the back roads from Grand Rapids to Holland, the heart of Pete Hoekstra territory, and I've walked and biked throughout my city, and I've found a total of ten houses with John McCain signs. (Those that do have the signs often have two, one at each end of the lot, so that they can double the impact.) There are more Obama signs than that on my block alone, and it's not uncommon on major streets to drive through corridors of them.
The signs in my neighborhood take on added significance because voter turnout is usually not very good. We live in the city proper. When I show up at the local school to vote, I hear about the "competition" among the streets, and my street never tops 10 voters. If one person from every house with an Obama sign votes, my street will have 20+ voters this November. This is huge.
One should not hang hopes on anecdotes. But the anecdotes reinforce much of the other data I've been seeing. This is not 2004. This is not even 2006. If red West Michigan does indeed resemble other parts of the country, this will be a happy and historic November.