Much debate has centered on Senator Joe Lieberman's ability to keep his position as the Chairmen of the powerful Senate Homeland Security Committee, given his antics and flip flops throughout the health care debate this year, not to mention backing the opposition candidates run for the Presidency in 2008. And much of the debate center's on the Democratic Leadership, and why one "independent", a former Democrat, is given so much power, so much esteem, in this Senate, when the Democrats clearly hold overwhelming majorities. The obvious answer of course is that without him, the Democrats are clearly unable to overcome a Republican filibuster. It is why they can not strip him of his leadership positions, and it is why he holds unprecedented power, although he is just one of 100 United States Senators.
But Joe Lieberman knows that this balancing act, remaining the all important 60th senator caucusing with the Democrats, is likely running out of time. He is gunning for the possibility that if he plays his cards right, he remains in a position of power when the new Congress takes its oath in January of 2011, following the 2010 mid-term election.
The best possible outcome for Senator Lieberman, is for the status quo to continue: 58 Democrats, Senator Bernie Sanders, and himself. Clearly that is the magical make up from a numbers perspective that gives him the most political power.
The second best scenario for him is for the Democrats to lose some seats, but to remain in the majority. He loses some of his power in that he no longer is the 60th vote to break a filibuster, but potentially keeps his important committee leadership positions. But herein lies a risk. The democratic leadership may weigh its options, and decide that his vote on most issues no longer warrants keeping him in a position of power within the party. Conversely, the democratic leadership may feel its in their best interest to keep him in his position on important committees, but now have the benefit of exercising power over him that they currently do not have: Lieberman would have to vote with the party or lose his committee positions. Joe loses his power over Democrats but potentially keeps his committee chair position, but Democrats lose ability to over ride Republican filibuster.
The third best case scenario for Joe is for the Democrat's to actually gain one or two seats in the next Senate. Now the Democrats no longer need his single vote to overcome a filibuster. He might still keep his committee positions however, knowing that breaking a filibuster threat may involve putting Democratic coalitions together to get to 60 votes. Clearly the Democrats hold the cards in this scenario. Joe would have to march in line, while potentially maintaining his committee chairs.
The 4th best scenario, and for Joe the worst case scenario, is that Democrats gain 3 or more seats, and toss him off his thrown. He clearly holds little power under this scenario, and likely is tossed from the caucus all together.
In summary, it is in HIS interests that Democrats either remain at current numbers in the Senate, or lose a couple of seats.
Given the power structure needed for Senator Lieberman to remain relevant, it is no wonder that he is obstructing at every turn, watering down bills at every turn, making democrats lives hell at every turn, but voting with the caucus very late in the game. It is neither in his interest for the Democrats to be overwhelmingly successful (thus losing his position as committee chair), nor is it in his interest to see Democrats overwhelmingly defeated in 2010. It is in Joe Liebermans best interest to maintain the status quo in terms of democratic numbers in the Senate. He is clearly in the position of power, as long as the Senate choses to continue to honor current filibuster rules.
Until the numbers change significantly, look for Joe Lieberman to continue to slow, obstruct, water down, but eventually side with the Democrats. We are clearly seeing how having a razor edge filibuster proof majority holds the American legislative process hostage to just a single man. And unfortunately this single man happens to love the spot light and the power.
Lets unite and work hard, to add significant numbers to the next United States Senate, and weld Joe Lieberman completely irrelevant in the new Senate. Its the clear winner for us, and clear loser for him.