AT&T offers $100K reward in fiber optic vandalism;
notes second incident
Without any evidence at all to go on other than the bare "facts" of the incident and while avoiding more convoluted theories that stray into tin foil territory and keeping in mind "Occam's Razor" what are the possibilities and which are the most plausible?
-Vandalism or prank?
-Terrorism related, domestic or foreign based?
-Intelligence operation, foreign or domestic even?
-Criminal gang related?
-Paranoid plot by paranoids related to or independent from all or some of the above....?
All in the Poll at the end
All the places I read about this used the word Vandals and Vandalism which kind of prejudges and ignores the more exotic possibilities. The mainstream media has largely ignored this and with everything else going on that is not surprising and a local incident with possibly no more important than a power outage but that ignores the very real vulnerability that we have in our internet capability that seems to have been unimportant to the keep America safe crowd over the past 8 years.
So here is a rundown on some likely and not so likely possibilities of who and why anyone would cut the 8 cables in 2 separate locations. There are reasonable notions and possibilities in each category and I have tried to keep this in the realms of at least the vaguely plausible. And if any readers can add their 2 cents/crackpot or plausible theories please do.
Vandalism: If it were in one location only a small number, then maybe vandalism could be the simplest reason it happened... teens with not a lot to do and a destructive, malicious streak... and regardless of whether there was an inane and out of proportion rationale.. (lets say they did it to cut off land line rivals in an online gamer thing.... ??) it would still amount to just destruction for the sake of being able to do it on targets of opportunity...etc. and not due to some larger, more sinister thing going on.
Considering there were just 2 locations affected by this incident (that we know of) and they were not exactly adjacent and we don't have the details of what capability and traffic patterns the affected servers were we cannot rule out simple mindless vandalism entirely but it would seem less likely. How easy was it to do? If the relative vulnerability and ease of access of the fiber optics is a major element then vandalism is still a reasonable explanation. If it was no easier or harder to do, then some sort of targeted reason would tend to explain why these 2 sets of cables were specifically chosen to achieve some outcome.
Verdict: Still the most likely scenario... absent more info.
Then Terrorism.. but internet infrasctucture seems less likely as a target. You'd have to imagine that somewhere someone dreamed up a really big long term strategy that involves a lot more than just direct action to try and cause high profile destruction and maximum loss of life. And high profile low tech acts are more their style and more doable more than high tech plots. An infrastructure degradation plan over time or an orchestrated synchronized multi-site strike would need way too many participants and risk exposure. A longer campaign using a smaller group would still expose them to being caught before they had done enough damage as their modus operandi became known... That still leaves the notion that the amount of damage or disruption is besides the point and the reaction and fear it might cause is the real purpose so maybe it could be a side plot and even amount to a feasibility study. Decision? Can't be ruled out without more info and you know that the people who know more aren't telling. The media may not be talking or thinking about it but HS and our intelligence people have to be working on who and why (if it wasn't them :) in the first place...)
Verdict: naahhh... but you never know....
Domestic based terror? The black helicopter crowd? Right wing Militias... they tend to be too low tech but you never know. You'd have to know why they had it in for the internet (helped elect Obama? don't like internet porn or their favorite nut job got ridiculed online once too often?... or consider a very left wing group who targeted the cables as a symbolic gesture to punish the telecommunication groups who allowed domestic spying. But I would hope that anyone in a lefty fringe group would know that since the internet itself is part of our new information commons and a tool to dismantle oligarchies damaging it is shooting us all in the foot. And anyway there have been no anonymous claims or responsibility by shadowy self-important, self-promoting groups yet... all part of the cunning plan... or not....
Verdict: Likelihood? not so much, but there are loons out there in self contained loon worlds. Too much like a B movie... but McVeigh was real...
Foreign intelligence: This is far more plausible, at least up to a point. A way to gauge the level of disruption in a direct experiment. They very likely have mathematical models of how a disruption would impact the net. And may perhaps be able to have monitored certain main conduits and associated web sites that used the cables that were cut to see what the effect was. Most advanced and not so advanced countries have thought long and hard about everything that could hurt their own countries in every way imaginable and likewise how the same things would affect rivals. The Chinese among others are apparently very active at every level to interfere with and snoop in sensitive areas of the web. Whether it is just part of the paranoia that seems to be endemic in China (for good reason up to a point) or not, I'm sure the NSA, CIA and others are very interested in China and the Chinese have probably noticed that interest take the shape of online efforts as well. But as a still fairly closed and controlled society they have an in built advantage over a more open country like the USA. But there must be a variety of ways war-gamed by all countries operating at this level and Russia's IT warfare had a chance to flex it's muscles in it's little mini fracas with Georgia. We are more vulnerable in that we are more web dependent on so many levels than Georgia...
Verdict: This remains a very serious possibility.
The possibility that it was some part of domestic US intelligence even in conjunction with a secret collaboration with a major communication corporation cannot be dismissed either. The guess here is that they could get data from it to help construct defenses against real attacks.... OR it was an operation to somehow counter act or understand some act of penetration by foreign intelligence/Org crime by cutting off access to some key points/web sites to prevent a data transfer or lock in some elusive code before it was erased by a track covering command from elsewhere...
Verdict: All conjecture... but you never know. In 50 years when the encrypted files are released we will all find out....
Ok, how about Criminal gangs? There are plenty of IT mafia types, from what we read in the news, mostly East European based that are running credit card scams or raiding information for money... this would again only be plausible if the existing physical links were understood very well and and the 2 cable cuts somehow allowed them to take advantage of a rerouting that they knew would happen in response or one that they set up that would allow them to record secure credit card and cash card validation transaction traffic. Again, knowing just what was brought down and whether it impacted any secure transaction info streams could then point to an organized crime gambit. But the complexity, amount of insider knowledge possibly required and (unless they hacked their way into the right info) the level of expertise and cost in time and people might seem to not justify the level of return... but what do I know? There is big money in IT crime so without more info this cannot be entirely ruled out. It might just be an attempt to try and get a protection money payoff to not do more of the same. But that is probably not going to work. The net has vulnerabilities but it is resilient and anyone trying to extort money to not carry out further acts would probably get caught. Too many cameras around... easier ways to steal. But it could be an overreach to somehow do a super heist of secure transaction numbers etc. Big money transfers... mass sales of credit card numbers... plenty of reasons to keep details quiet if it were true. Banks and other outfits have been embarrassed too many times and we all pay for the losses.
Verdict: Still possible, but again need more info to rule out or not.
The last possibility is that a loner or small group of nutters who have such an "enhanced" interpretation of reality that they arguably don't belong in the domestic terror group. Like a rare mutation that is just on it's own a person in this category is an aberration with little direct influence or aid from others so is probably more unlikely than the others but not entirely impossible. The unibomber is an examples of an unhinged person who turned paranoid delusions and anger into a plan that actually did some damage is very real. If there are more acts of sabotage like this a pattern might emerge that could narrow down the possibilities and even point to a highly motivated yet inexplicable madman. A lone crazy person with or without a small support group might be able to keep it up for a while. But the more loopy the rationale behind it I can't see it being as having the same monomania as for example abortion clinic bombers and provider assassins have.
Verdict: This is the least likely but a self contained driven person could have this as part of a personal crusade of some sort.
In the end this set of conjectures built on nothing but the bare facts as reported in the media. Useful? pointless? A mental exercise in what is reasonable to come up with reasons to discard the more paranoid scenarios? They all would be red meat for a variety of conspiracy theory types but if any might be reasonable I'd go for Foreign or domestic intelligence and then Organized crime or plain old vandalism... with the rest trailing in the distance.