Rock Mountain Poll (PDF). 10/1-10. Registered voters. MoE 4.2% (July results)
Jan Brewer (R) 38 (45)
Terry Goddard (D) 35 (25)
Other 6 (8)
Undecided 21 (22)
Most likely voters
Jan Brewer (R) 46
Terry Goddard (D) 35
Two caveats off-the-bat -- the 10-day polling period is weird polling methodology, and the "most likely voters" sample size is undefined, but given it's a sub-sample of the overall n=555 sample, the margin of error must be astronomical.
Then again, Nate Silver rated these guys as the fifth best pollster in his rankings, which is why I'm taking this poll seriously.
Democratic candidate Terry Goddard is benefitting from a huge vote from the Latino community, 60 percent of whom say they will vote for him and only 13 percent say they favor Brewer. Goddard also out-polls Jan Brewer among other minority voters, who in Arizona are mostly Native American or Asian. These advantages are off-set by Jan Brewer’s anchor of voter strength among those who classify themselves as “Very conservative.” Of these voters, 63 percent of people favor Brewer and among voters who consider themselves “conservative” but not extremely so, the Brewer vote is still impressive at 57 percent. Goddard attracts a fifth of conservatives. Brewer also rolls up an impressive 65 percent of the GOP vote and out distances Goddard by only 33 to 26 percent among Independents.
The Latino vote is critical to future Democratic chances in Arizona. As I wrote in the Spring:
[W]hile conservatives might pat themselves on the back for passage of [SB 1070], the long-term effects shouldn’t be so comforting. Latinos make up 29 percent of Arizona’s population. If current population trends continue, Arizona will become a majority-minority state by 2015. In 2003, more Latino babies were born than non-Hispanic white babies. And by 2007, Latino babies were 45 percent of the total, compared to 41 percent for non-Hispanic whites, and 14 percent for non-Hispanic Asians, Native Americans and African-Americans.
In 2008, Arizona Latinos opted for Obama 56-41, which seems lopsided, but nationally, the number was 67-31 for Obama. Sen. Jon Kyl also got that respectable 41 percent in his 2006 reelection battle. In 2004, John McCain won 74 percent of the Latino vote.
While Arizona Latinos aren’t a solid Democratic voting bloc, this law may very well change that. The Proposition 187 analogy is instructive — the GOP engages in heavy-handed, hateful, discriminatory and partisan demonizing of immigrants at its own electoral peril.
Remember, Latinos were a 60-40 Democratic constituency in Arizona. Freakin Kyl got 40 percent of the vote. He never will again. If the poll is accurate with its 60-13 Democratic split for Brewer, the election-night split will be 75-25 or even better.
Now, that might not be enough to overcome the conservative vote in this teabagger-fueled election year (that intensity gap is a killer), but it's definitely a disastrous sign for the GOP's long-term prospects in that fast-growing state.