After my astute analysis and predictions of the 2011 Kentucky Derby , I naturally decided you could not live without reading my expert analysis of the Preakness. Hopefully my choice will come in first this time.
See below before you place your bets.
First the analysis, then my picks. I'll be listing the horses in their post position order.
1. Astrology (14/1) - I wouldn't bet a dime on this horse in this race. I think he's way out-classed here and why his odds are not higher than 15-1 is baffling to me. His trainer was the man responsible for Rachel Alexander winning this race, so perhaps that is bumping up his odds. Look for him to stay with the leaders early. Take a pass, even as an exotic entry.
2. Norman Asbjornson (35/1) - I believe this colt is very out-classed in this race and frankly, I'm not a fan in any race he runs in. This colt should be entered in sprints only if he wants a decent record. Look for him to be just behind the early leaders, almost middle of the pack, but there are much stronger closers in this race. Makes a nice entry in a field horse bet.
3. King Congie (20/1) - A wise choice for betting on turf or poly but not here. This horse had 2 horrendous defeats in his only dirt races. Even though those were sprints and he seems to prefer a longer run, I rule him out. Might be a good entry in your exotic bet, as he does seem to be improving.
4. Flashpoint (20/1) - Fastest horse in this race - speed, speed, and more speed. For a mile. I can't see this horse going the extra 3/16ths. But he's going to set the pace, it will most likely be quick, and if he wins it would be wire to wire. Definitely include him in your exotic bets.
5. Shackleford (12/1) - He's going to be neck and neck with Flashpoint. If he's not, he's done. This horse does not like to come from behind. As impressive as he was in the Derby, many think with that final furlong missing, he can win this race. I'm not one of them. The Derby had the slowest early fractions in decades and this horse still fell from first. Flashpoint is going to give him all he can handle in the early going and I look for him to tire before the wire. Throw him in an exotic box if you so desire.
6. Sway Away (12/1) - Another horse who belongs in sprint races. I just can't see this horse going the distance to win, with a history of very slow closing fractions. I wouldn't bother with this one.
7. Midnight Interlude (12/1) - This horse had no excuse in the Derby, other than he's moody, temperamental and immature. If he's in a good mood he can be a threat, but I think he's just too young to worry about right now. Save your money.
8. Dance City (11/1) - This horse can threaten. He's got a high speed index but some problems to go along with it. This horse likes to zoom to the front and outlast all comers. With Flashpoint in this race I just don't see how he not only hangs on for the win but holds off Flashpoint early. Definitely include him in any exotic bets but I don't see him winning this.
9. Mucho Macho Man (9/2) - Watch out, Animal Kingdom. Cuz the Man is coming for you. This colt is a true contender here but not without warning. His pedigree is all sprinters. So did he hold on in the longer Derby because it was run so slow, or is he outrunning his pedigree? Betting this colt to show is probably the safest bet in the race, but it's not going to win you much money. MUST be included in any Exacta, Trifecta, or Perfecta bet. Seriously, this horse is my toughest call in this race. I'm going to say he doesn't hang on, but by the slimmest of margins.
10. Dialed In (4/1) - The second favorite in this race, and rightfully so. MUST be included in your exotic bets. Look for the colt to stay way back and close HARD. The mistake in the Derby was that he was more than 10 lengths back, the race was slow early, and the faster horses had too much left. If the pace of this race is as quick as I expect it to be, this horse could throw a monkey into the Triple Crown wrench. He seriously could win this thing. If he's closer than 10 lengths off the leaders when he makes his move, game over and the prize is his.
11. Animal Kingdom (3/1) - The sentimental favorite to keep the Triple Crown hopes alive. MUST be included in any bets, but won't win you a damn thing with these odds. My one concern with AK is that they moved him to Pimlico this morning. A 60 mile trip isn't horrendous, but the trailering this morning is making my stomach hurt. With a record of 3-2 out of 5 races, how can I not pick this guy to win it all? I can't, I won't, so this is my pick to win.
12. Isn't He Perfect (25/1) - No, he isn't. Blech. Nothing to get excited about here. And frankly, if by some miracle he won this race, it would be a travesty.
13. Concealed Identity (25/1) - This son of Smarty Jones is your local favorite - bred, born, trained and raced in Maryland. He LOVES Pimlico and has the record to prove it. This horse alone makes a $20 or $50 Field bet worth the risk. Doesn't have the speed to win, but on any given day...
14. Mr. Commons (20/1) - This colt can win at 6 furlongs and a mile, but when asked for an extra 1/8th it was disastrous. Don't bother.
Race time is 6:18pm Eastern. The track is listed as FAST. For those who like to bet, throw $20 on the Field horses and root your asses off for Animal Kingdom. No money to be made on this race on this day.
Animal Kingdom is the kind of horse I'd love to see win this race, for many reasons. He's got a legit shot to win the Belmont, which would make him the first Triple Crown winner in 32 years. That makes him highly desirable in the breeding shed and that does nothing but good for American thoroughbreds. With a sire from Brazil and a dam from Germany, we get some great foreign blood, noted for stamina, toughness, emotional stability, and winning records. German mares cannot be bred for the track if they've ever had drugs, which in my opinion automatically improves the lines. These horses are fit, healthy, and their blood should be infused into American thoroughbred lines much more than they have been. If Animal Kingdom wins the Triple Crown, he brings that hope to fruition.
Updated by Miss Blue at Sat May 21, 2011 at 05:05 PM CDT
And it's Post Time. We shall be singing Maryland, My Maryland. Done by the US Naval Academy Glee Club.
Updated by Miss Blue at Sat May 21, 2011 at 05:10 PM CDT
1. Astrology - Very pretty, alert and dancing.
2. Norman - Calm, not pretty, short neck
3. King Congie - Calm, ugly head
4. Flash Point - pretty grey, great hip
5. Shackleford - Pretty
6. Sway Away - Already foaming
7. Midnight Interlude - New jockey, seems calmer
8. Dance City - Gorgeous and attentive
9. Mucho Macho Man - Looks sleepy, weak hip
10. Dialed In - Stunning dark bay
11. Animal Kingdom - As unflappable as ever.
12. Isn't He Perfect - Ugh. Hate him
13. Concealed Identity - The local hero and very pretty
14. Mr. Commons - Gorgeous and wound up.
Updated by Miss Blue at Sat May 21, 2011 at 05:15 PM CDT
Clip of Animal Kingdom. Five races total, four different jockeys. Trailered to Pimlico this morning, which concerns me but he looks in top condition.
This horse looks so much like my all-time favorite - Big Red.
Updated by Miss Blue at Sat May 21, 2011 at 05:20 PM CDT
Into the gate is not going great. LOTS of nervous horses, with Shackleford and Dance City being the worst. Mucho Macho Man looks light, which is not good. Animal Kingdom is calm as a cucumber.
Updated by Miss Blue at Sat May 21, 2011 at 05:22 PM CDT
Flash Point and Shackleford force a blazing opening pace.
Updated by Miss Blue at Sat May 21, 2011 at 05:23 PM CDT
Dialed In and Animal Kingdom dead last, as expected.
OH MY FUCKING GOD - SHACKLEFORD GOES WIRE TO WIRE TO WIN THE PREAKNESS.
Updated by Miss Blue at Sat May 21, 2011 at 05:31 PM CDT
For those wondering how this came to be, here's the deal: I guarantee nobody in racing ever thought Flash Point would rate. Meaning, slow down when the jockey asked him to. And consequently Shackleford would burn himself out trying to stay with Flash Point. But lo and behold, the damn horse rated. Both speed horses slowed down for the middle of the race, leaving Shackleford with enough left to hold off the closers.
Win - Shackleford
Place - Animal Kingdom
Show - Astrology in an upset