While there hasn't been a ton of polling out of Alabama and Mississippi in advance of tomorrow's "Deep South" primaries, what we have seen over the past few days points to a potential coin flip on Tuesday night.
Interestingly, it looks like national polls of the GOP primary point to a similarly tight circumstance. Gallup's tracker, inexplicably, is tightening again, and two new national polls see a four-point race, with Santorum leading in one of those polls.
On the general election front, it was a quiet Monday, though a national poll did give a little cover to Rasmussen's sudden surge for the GOP.
GOP PRIMARY POLLS:
NATIONAL (ABC/Washington Post): Romney 33, Santorum 29, Gingrich 14, Paul 12
NATIONAL (CBS News): Santorum 34, Romney 30, Gingrich 13, Paul 8
NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Romney 34, Santorum 25, Gingrich 15, Paul 12
ALABAMA (American Research Group): Gingrich 34, Romney 31, Santorum 24, Paul 6
ALABAMA (PPP): Romney 31, Gingrich 30, Santorum 29, Paul 8
ILLINOIS (Chicago Tribune/Market Shares): Romney 35, Santorum 31, Gingrich 12, Paul 7
MISSISSIPPI (American Research Group): Romney 34, Gingrich 32, Santorum 22, Paul 8
MISSISSIPPI (PPP): Gingrich 33, Romney 31, Santorum 27, Paul 7
GENERAL ELECTION TRIAL HEATS:
NATIONAL (ABC/Washington Post): Romney d. Obama (49-47); Obama d. Santorum (49-46)
NATIONAL (CBS/New York Times): Obama d. Romney (47-44); Obama d. Santorum (48-44); Obama d. Paul (49-39); Obama d. Gingrich (52-38)
NATIONAL (Rasmussen): Romney d. Obama (46-43); Obama d. Paul (42-41); Obama d. Santorum (46-43); Obama d. Gingrich (46-40)
A thought or two about tomorrow … and beyond … after the jump.
Leave it to Tom Jensen (PPP's master scribe) to make the clearest summary I have seen yet about the state of play in Tuesday's Deep South primaries:
About all we know is that Ron Paul won't win any of these states on Tuesday...the other three candidates all have a shot in both of them.
If there is one possible safe bet (and it is far from a safe one), it looks like Rick Santorum might be an inch or two off of the pace in Mississippi. ARG (!) had Santorum way back, but even PPP had Santorum in the 20s, as well.
Meanwhile, Alabama looks like you could throw a blanket over the front three. After all, if both Rasmussen and PPP come to virtually identical conclusions, that rare occurrence deserves special attention.
The stakes could scarcely be higher. It is hard to imagine how the GOP doesn't coalesce around Mitt Romney if he sweeps tomorrow night (a win in the Hawaii caucuses seems likely, especially given the relatively high LDS population on the islands), and Romney is deeply concerned about the impact of a protracted nomination fight on his general election chances. That said, it is hard to see how this thing doesn't head into April if either Santorum or Gingrich holds their ground tomorrow night. Gingrich is incrementally better suited to do so, as he has really turned this pair of states into his firewall. But Santorum has stayed remarkably competitive in the Deep South, and is within striking distance.
If Romney strikes out tomorrow, even if he snares a fair number of delegates in the bargain, the meme of Romney as weak frontrunner will return with a vengeance. But it would probably not be a fatal blow, assuming that he loses both races to Gingrich. After all, it is hard to see another state (save for maybe Louisiana) where Gingrich will be the betting favorite). If Santorum earned the unlikely sweep, however, Romney would undoubtedly endure another round of having to spar with a vital "anti-Mitt", one with renewed momentum. Tomorrow night ought to be arguably the most interesting night of the campaign thus far.
Meanwhile, a word about the general election polls. On balance, the week starts off pretty ugly for Barack Obama, but there is a silver lining among those clouds. The Rasmussen "surge" for Mitt Romney already abated slightly with today's installment of their tracking poll, and those narrow leads in the CBS/NYT poll come despite Barack Obama being saddled with the lowest job approval numbers of his recent presidency (41/49). President Obama, one would assume, would be a decided underdog in November if he had a net negative 8 on the job approval front. To still have a lead, no matter how narrow, with those kind of job approval numbers underscores how damaged the GOP brand, and their roster of candidates, are after two months of primary fisticuffs.