For those of you (us) that check RCP or PollTracker more than 4 times an hour (admit it, you know who you are!) I have put together this handy guide to help you ride the rollercoaster of election night with higher highs, and lower lows. The truth is, it will most likely be a late night with close vote counts and we won't know the outcome until midnight or later Eastern time. BUT...there are a number of states that will give early indications to how the night will turn out, and this may help with your drinking problem keeping your nerves on an even keel.
For example: If Indiana goes Blue -- there's nothing Romney can do! Conversely, If New Jersey goes Red -- Obama's finished, go to bed.
With that lovely bathroom wall graffiti poetry in mind, I offer you PBJ's guide to Election Night Poll Closings. ©
7:00pm --
VIRGINIA: If this goes Blue, Romney is probably toast. If it's an early red call, Obama is in for a close night. Too close to call (TCTC)? A good-ish sign.
7:30pm --
NORTH CAROLINA: see Virginia -- except an early red call not unexpected
OHIO: If this goes Blue early, Obama has a 75% chance to win it all. TCTC, might be a long night. If Obama loses OH, he must sweep all the remaining swings to win, if Romney loses he needs at least 3 out of 5 (maybe 4 depending on which ones, see below).
8:00pm --
NEW HAMPSHIRE: Really, this state won't matter in most scenarios, but if Obama loses Ohio, this is a must win for him.
PENNSYLVANIA: It takes a while for the votes to come in here, so an early call either way is a good sign for that team, but TCTC won't tell us much initially.
FLORIDA: Blue-- Romney's dead, and we can all go home (Why aren't you home already? Where are you?) Red or TCTC is an expected result.
9:00pm --
MINNESOTA: Should be clear blue, otherwise...uh, oh.
MICHIGAN: Blue must win. TCTC=reason to worry.
WISCONSIN:Clear red win spells trouble. Clear blue win, a good night for us. TCTC, expected.
COLORADO: Should be close, if OH + WI are already blue, a win here clinches it. A loss still leaves a couple options.
10:00pm --
IOWA / NEVADA: If there have been no surprises at this point (PA, MI, MN blue FL, VA, NC red) most likely victory in one of these states will give Obama the night...we have the following scenarios:
IF THIS HAPPENS: THEN WE NEED:
OH RED: IA + WI + CO + NV + NH
OH BLUE/ WI RED: CO + (IA or NV)
OH BLUE/ WI + CO RED: IA + NV + NH
OH + WI BLUE: IA or CO or NV
All swing states will close by 10:00pm.
So, there you are, I hope I cleared that up. As things stand currently, unless we get a surprise victory in VA, NC or FL -- it looks like a long night with OH, WI, CO, NV, + IA holding the key...and NH only being a factor if either OH, or both WI + CO go red. There are more paths for Obama than Romney, but there's still a lot of math involved....