Below is my second attempt at modeling the upcoming vote in Virginia.
My results are a narrow Obama victory based on the current polling aggregations, changes in registrations by locality, and the partisan trends by locality over time. The difference in the election right now is the fact that most new voters are in localities whose voting history is favorable to the President. Even if we allocate those votes conservatively it puts significant wind in the sails of the President's chances.
I have Obama winning by 68,381, or 1.68%, by garnering 50.10% of the vote cast. As before, if you have a toe on the ground in any of these localities, then I'd be interested in how the model matches your expectations of where things are.
Since 2008 was a high water mark, Obama margins over Romney will be lower than his margins over McCain in most places. Based on trends from the 4 prior presidential elections, I think the biggest shifts in the number of voters moving from Obama to Romney will be in these locations:
1) Virginia Beach
2) Chesterfield County
3) Chesapeake City
4) Fairfax County
5) Hanover County
6) Loudon County
This is in part because that is where the votes are. Obama will crush in Fairfax, but not by 2008 margins. He should hold Loudon, but it could be a nailbiter. Romney needs to flip Chesapeake City and run up margins in Va Beach, Chesterfield and Hanover. Those are probably the 6 best locations to watch for a sense of what is happening when the returns start rolling in.
Based on the final margin between him and his opponent, Obama should be even stronger in Richmond, Charlottesville, Alexandria, Petersburg, Hampton, and Williamsburg than he was in 2008. He will win smaller percentages of the vote in these localities, but they all have more voters than before and few are persuadable to the Republican side. Gary Johnson may harvest a few with libertarian leanings.
COUNTY/CITY |
Obama |
Romney |
Margin |
%Obama |
%Romney |
08Margin |
ACCOMACK
COUNTY |
7530 |
8861 |
-1330 |
45.26% |
53.25% |
-226 |
ALBEMARLE
COUNTY |
32553 |
23944 |
8609 |
56.76% |
41.75% |
9216 |
ALEXANDRIA
CITY |
55139 |
21866 |
33273 |
70.54% |
27.97% |
31292 |
ALLEGHANY
COUNTY |
3281 |
3994 |
-713 |
44.43% |
54.08% |
-162 |
AMELIA
COUNTY |
2439 |
4621 |
-2181 |
34.04% |
64.47% |
-1482 |
AMHERST
COUNTY |
5895 |
9723 |
-3828 |
37.18% |
61.33% |
-2376 |
APPOMATTOX
COUNTY |
2521 |
5730 |
-3209 |
30.10% |
68.41% |
-2262 |
ARLINGTON
COUNTY |
89390 |
35370 |
54021 |
70.58% |
27.93% |
49118 |
AUGUSTA
COUNTY |
9529 |
26820 |
-17291 |
25.82% |
72.69% |
-13295 |
BATH
COUNTY |
928 |
1441 |
-513 |
38.58% |
59.93% |
-306 |
BEDFORD
CITY |
1128 |
1658 |
-530 |
39.89% |
58.62% |
-289 |
BEDFORD
COUNTY |
10572 |
28764 |
-18192 |
26.48% |
72.04% |
-13403 |
BLAND
COUNTY |
786 |
2329 |
-1543 |
24.86% |
73.65% |
-1167 |
BOTETOURT
COUNTY |
5274 |
12986 |
-7713 |
28.45% |
70.06% |
-5778 |
BRISTOL
CITY |
2506 |
5220 |
-2714 |
31.95% |
66.56% |
-1914 |
BRUNSWICK
COUNTY |
4772 |
3036 |
1736 |
60.21% |
38.31% |
2096 |
BUCHANAN
COUNTY |
3412 |
5146 |
-1735 |
39.27% |
59.24% |
-478 |
BUCKINGHAM
COUNTY |
3428 |
3875 |
-447 |
46.24% |
52.27% |
61 |
BUENA
VISTA CITY |
1123 |
1571 |
-449 |
41.05% |
57.46% |
-174 |
CAMPBELL
COUNTY |
7619 |
20030 |
-12411 |
27.15% |
71.37% |
-9353 |
CAROLINE
COUNTY |
7396 |
6491 |
905 |
52.47% |
46.05% |
1546 |
CARROLL
COUNTY |
3840 |
9288 |
-5448 |
28.82% |
69.70% |
-4078 |
CHARLES
CITY COUNTY |
2744 |
1362 |
1381 |
65.83% |
32.69% |
1550 |
CHARLOTTE
COUNTY |
2425 |
3548 |
-1124 |
39.99% |
58.52% |
-667 |
CHARLOTTESVILLE
CITY |
18587 |
4894 |
13693 |
77.98% |
20.53% |
11627 |
CHESAPEAKE
CITY |
53431 |
58662 |
-5231 |
46.96% |
51.56% |
1369 |
CHESTERFIELD
COUNTY |
76922 |
98537 |
-21615 |
43.19% |
55.32% |
-12103 |
CLARKE
COUNTY |
3500 |
4418 |
-917 |
43.55% |
54.96% |
-383 |
COLONIAL
HEIGHTS CITY |
2379 |
6679 |
-4300 |
25.87% |
72.64% |
-3599 |
COVINGTON
CITY |
1214 |
1132 |
82 |
50.98% |
47.53% |
284 |
CRAIG
COUNTY |
805 |
1937 |
-1131 |
28.93% |
69.58% |
-818 |
CULPEPER
COUNTY |
9106 |
12560 |
-3454 |
41.40% |
57.11% |
-1909 |
CUMBERLAND
COUNTY |
2191 |
2649 |
-458 |
44.60% |
53.91% |
-163 |
DANVILLE
CITY |
12012 |
8475 |
3537 |
57.76% |
40.75% |
3991 |
DICKENSON
COUNTY |
2830 |
3580 |
-750 |
43.49% |
55.02% |
-46 |
DINWIDDIE
COUNTY |
6162 |
7410 |
-1248 |
44.73% |
53.78% |
-280 |
EMPORIA
CITY |
1730 |
967 |
764 |
63.21% |
35.31% |
805 |
ESSEX
COUNTY |
3039 |
2708 |
331 |
52.10% |
46.42% |
555 |
FAIRFAX
CITY |
6423 |
4850 |
1573 |
56.13% |
42.38% |
1884 |
FAIRFAX
COUNTY |
326538 |
223324 |
103214 |
58.50% |
40.01% |
109365 |
FALLS
CHURCH CITY |
5232 |
2276 |
2957 |
68.65% |
29.86% |
2725 |
FAUQUIER
COUNTY |
14825 |
22136 |
-7311 |
39.51% |
59.00% |
-4611 |
FLOYD
COUNTY |
2772 |
4974 |
-2202 |
35.25% |
63.26% |
-1504 |
FLUVANNA
COUNTY |
6056 |
7028 |
-972 |
45.60% |
52.91% |
-235 |
FRANKLIN
CITY |
2677 |
1635 |
1042 |
61.16% |
37.35% |
1243 |
FRANKLIN
COUNTY |
9257 |
18039 |
-8782 |
33.41% |
65.10% |
-5796 |
FREDERICK
COUNTY |
13735 |
24662 |
-10927 |
35.24% |
63.27% |
-7188 |
FREDERICKSBURG
CITY |
7746 |
4588 |
3158 |
61.87% |
36.65% |
2742 |
GALAX
CITY |
938 |
1412 |
-474 |
39.32% |
59.19% |
-265 |
GILES
COUNTY |
2910 |
5011 |
-2101 |
36.19% |
62.32% |
-1270 |
GLOUCESTER
COUNTY |
6605 |
13853 |
-7248 |
31.80% |
66.71% |
-5173 |
GOOCHLAND
COUNTY |
4710 |
8793 |
-4084 |
34.36% |
64.15% |
-2830 |
GRAYSON
COUNTY |
2226 |
5024 |
-2798 |
30.25% |
68.26% |
-2060 |
GREENE
COUNTY |
3347 |
6122 |
-2775 |
34.82% |
63.69% |
-1806 |
GREENSVILLE
COUNTY |
2969 |
1841 |
1128 |
60.81% |
37.70% |
1393 |
HALIFAX
COUNTY |
7921 |
9425 |
-1504 |
44.99% |
53.53% |
-474 |
HAMPTON
CITY |
49227 |
22311 |
26917 |
67.79% |
30.72% |
26441 |
HANOVER
COUNTY |
17983 |
42808 |
-24825 |
29.14% |
69.37% |
-18897 |
HARRISONBURG
CITY |
9669 |
7250 |
2419 |
56.30% |
42.21% |
2396 |
HENRICO
COUNTY |
91002 |
75408 |
15594 |
53.87% |
44.64% |
18942 |
HENRY
COUNTY |
10082 |
14684 |
-4602 |
40.10% |
58.41% |
-2640 |
HIGHLAND
COUNTY |
479 |
896 |
-417 |
34.33% |
64.18% |
-340 |
HOPEWELL
CITY |
5227 |
4373 |
854 |
53.64% |
44.87% |
1136 |
ISLE OF
WIGHT COUNTY |
8486 |
13060 |
-4574 |
38.80% |
59.71% |
-2685 |
JAMES
CITY COUNTY |
18084 |
24778 |
-6695 |
41.56% |
56.95% |
-3560 |
KING
& QUEEN COUNTY |
1822 |
1927 |
-106 |
47.87% |
50.64% |
155 |
KING
GEORGE COUNTY |
4789 |
7257 |
-2468 |
39.16% |
59.35% |
-1415 |
KING
WILLIAM COUNTY |
3314 |
5789 |
-2475 |
35.86% |
62.65% |
-1622 |
LANCASTER
COUNTY |
3007 |
3761 |
-754 |
43.77% |
54.74% |
-412 |
LEE
COUNTY |
2815 |
6663 |
-3848 |
29.26% |
69.26% |
-2606 |
LEXINGTON
CITY |
1848 |
1182 |
666 |
60.09% |
38.42% |
629 |
LOUDOUN
COUNTY |
86803 |
80196 |
6607 |
51.20% |
47.31% |
11509 |
LOUISA
COUNTY |
7063 |
9598 |
-2535 |
41.76% |
56.75% |
-1204 |
LUNENBURG
COUNTY |
2514 |
3085 |
-571 |
44.23% |
54.28% |
-197 |
LYNCHBURG
CITY |
18104 |
22193 |
-4089 |
44.26% |
54.25% |
-1369 |
MADISON
COUNTY |
2722 |
4121 |
-1399 |
39.19% |
59.32% |
-896 |
MANASSAS
CITY |
8410 |
7099 |
1310 |
53.42% |
45.10% |
1543 |
MANASSAS
PARK CITY |
2848 |
1998 |
851 |
57.90% |
40.61% |
829 |
MARTINSVILLE
CITY |
3948 |
2326 |
1622 |
61.99% |
36.52% |
1828 |
MATHEWS
COUNTY |
1756 |
3773 |
-2017 |
31.29% |
67.22% |
-1522 |
MECKLENBURG
COUNTY |
6960 |
8682 |
-1721 |
43.84% |
54.68% |
-690 |
MIDDLESEX
COUNTY |
2188 |
3836 |
-1648 |
35.78% |
62.73% |
-1154 |
MONTGOMERY
COUNTY |
22477 |
22717 |
-240 |
48.99% |
49.52% |
2003 |
NELSON
COUNTY |
4172 |
3938 |
234 |
50.68% |
47.84% |
744 |
NEW KENT
COUNTY |
3593 |
7845 |
-4253 |
30.94% |
67.57% |
-2892 |
NEWPORT
NEWS CITY |
52704 |
30546 |
22159 |
62.37% |
36.15% |
23305 |
NORFOLK
CITY |
63791 |
26601 |
37190 |
69.52% |
28.99% |
38005 |
NORTHAMPTON
COUNTY |
3557 |
2840 |
718 |
54.78% |
43.73% |
1087 |
NORTHUMBERLAND
COUNTY |
3155 |
4381 |
-1226 |
41.24% |
57.27% |
-729 |
NORTON
CITY |
697 |
860 |
-163 |
44.10% |
54.41% |
-1 |
NOTTOWAY
COUNTY |
3178 |
3697 |
-519 |
45.54% |
52.97% |
-86 |
ORANGE
COUNTY |
7071 |
9690 |
-2619 |
41.56% |
56.95% |
-1399 |
PAGE
COUNTY |
3944 |
6551 |
-2607 |
37.02% |
61.49% |
-1806 |
PATRICK
COUNTY |
2681 |
6119 |
-3437 |
30.02% |
68.50% |
-2612 |
PETERSBURG
CITY |
14908 |
1703 |
13205 |
88.41% |
10.10% |
12191 |
PITTSYLVANIA
COUNTY |
10898 |
20903 |
-10005 |
33.76% |
64.75% |
-7315 |
POQUOSON
CITY |
1604 |
5832 |
-4228 |
21.25% |
77.27% |
-3481 |
PORTSMOUTH
CITY |
32190 |
15029 |
17161 |
67.16% |
31.36% |
18343 |
POWHATAN
COUNTY |
4142 |
12001 |
-7859 |
25.28% |
73.24% |
-5851 |
PRINCE
EDWARD COUNTY |
5217 |
4709 |
508 |
51.78% |
46.74% |
927 |
PRINCE
GEORGE COUNTY |
7167 |
9943 |
-2776 |
41.27% |
57.25% |
-1622 |
PRINCE
WILLIAM COUNTY |
108398 |
84024 |
24374 |
55.50% |
43.02% |
25814 |
PULASKI
COUNTY |
5400 |
9791 |
-4391 |
35.02% |
63.49% |
-2939 |
RADFORD
CITY |
2993 |
2773 |
220 |
51.13% |
47.38% |
512 |
RAPPAHANNOCK
COUNTY |
2013 |
2418 |
-406 |
44.74% |
53.77% |
-122 |
RICHMOND
CITY |
79824 |
20450 |
59374 |
78.42% |
20.09% |
54974 |
RICHMOND
COUNTY |
1531 |
2275 |
-744 |
39.62% |
58.89% |
-474 |
ROANOKE
CITY |
24760 |
16699 |
8060 |
58.83% |
39.68% |
9540 |
ROANOKE
COUNTY |
18748 |
33977 |
-15229 |
35.03% |
63.48% |
-10759 |
ROCKBRIDGE
COUNTY |
4187 |
6504 |
-2317 |
38.58% |
59.93% |
-1385 |
ROCKINGHAM
COUNTY |
10347 |
26096 |
-15749 |
27.97% |
70.54% |
-12015 |
RUSSELL
COUNTY |
4523 |
7287 |
-2764 |
37.73% |
60.78% |
-1457 |
SALEM
CITY |
4949 |
7959 |
-3011 |
37.77% |
60.75% |
-1924 |
SCOTT
COUNTY |
2369 |
7821 |
-5453 |
22.90% |
75.61% |
-4255 |
SHENANDOAH
COUNTY |
6787 |
13769 |
-6982 |
32.53% |
65.99% |
-5093 |
SMYTH
COUNTY |
3857 |
8899 |
-5042 |
29.79% |
68.72% |
-3578 |
SOUTHAMPTON
COUNTY |
4194 |
5196 |
-1002 |
44.00% |
54.51% |
-181 |
SPOTSYLVANIA
COUNTY |
25818 |
33611 |
-7793 |
42.80% |
55.72% |
-3713 |
STAFFORD
COUNTY |
27453 |
35134 |
-7681 |
43.21% |
55.30% |
-3505 |
STAUNTON
CITY |
5733 |
5936 |
-202 |
48.40% |
50.11% |
239 |
SUFFOLK
CITY |
23240 |
18964 |
4276 |
54.25% |
44.27% |
5281 |
SURRY
COUNTY |
2507 |
1779 |
728 |
57.62% |
40.89% |
963 |
SUSSEX
COUNTY |
3195 |
2146 |
1049 |
58.93% |
39.58% |
1275 |
TAZEWELL
COUNTY |
4931 |
12858 |
-7928 |
27.30% |
71.21% |
-5605 |
VIRGINIA
BEACH CITY |
98327 |
111190 |
-12863 |
46.23% |
52.28% |
-1434 |
WARREN
COUNTY |
7047 |
10326 |
-3278 |
39.96% |
58.55% |
-1882 |
WASHINGTON
COUNTY |
7559 |
18460 |
-10901 |
28.62% |
69.89% |
-8014 |
WAYNESBORO
CITY |
3779 |
5250 |
-1471 |
41.23% |
57.28% |
-909 |
WESTMORELAND
COUNTY |
4543 |
4143 |
400 |
51.52% |
46.99% |
858 |
WILLIAMSBURG
CITY |
5729 |
3307 |
2422 |
62.46% |
36.05% |
1975 |
WINCHESTER
CITY |
5169 |
5053 |
117 |
49.82% |
48.69% |
543 |
WISE
COUNTY |
4448 |
10365 |
-5917 |
29.58% |
68.93% |
-3919 |
WYTHE
COUNTY |
3826 |
9398 |
-5572 |
28.50% |
70.01% |
-4100 |
YORK
COUNTY |
13293 |
22323 |
-9030 |
36.77% |
61.74% |
-6133 |
Totals |
2036796 |
1968415 |
68381 |
50.10% |
48.42% |
234527 |