As of poll closing on Sunday we have the following votes reported:
Democrat Republican NP/Other Total
Registered Voters 526,986 436,799 293,836 1,257,621
Early Votes 192,99 155,317 76,060 424,369
Percentage voted 36.6% 35.6% 25.9% 33.7%
Votes left 333,994 281,482 217,776 833,252
Two recent polls have been conducted in Nevada, one by PPP and another by Marist. Data from those polls, broken down by party affiliation, show that voters support the President with the following percentages:
Democrat Republican NP/Other
PPP 89% 12% 44%
Marist 94% 10% 40%
Worst Case 89% 10% 40%
Using the polling data percentages we come up with the following raw vote totals:
PPP Marist Worst case
Obama 223,867 227,368 217,719
Romney 200,502 197,001 206,650
Obama Lead 23,366 30,367 11,068
Additionally, we can use the polling percentages to see how many votes are left for each candidate in the remaining voting population:
PPP Marist Worst Case
Obama votes left 426,854 429,213 412,513
Romney Votes left 406,398 404,039 420,739
Potential Obama gain 20,456 25,174 -8,225
We can draw the following conclusions from the data. Democrats are turning out slightly ahead of Republicans percentage wise. This is good for Democrats since there are 90,000 more Democrats than Republicans. Percentage wise, independent turnout is lower than partisan turnout. This is good for us this year, since independent voters favor Romney.
The remaining voting population probably contains more potential Obama voters, but could favor Romney very slightly. However, Obama's lead is very likely over 11,000 votes. This means that Republicans will have to turnout at considerably higher numbers than Democrats in the 5 days of early voting left, or swamp them on November 6.
It's not impossible, I guess. But I wouldn't bet on it.
Early voting at the mall in Henderson Nevada. The poll worker holding an American flag is indicating that there is an empty voting machine ready for the next voter.