While Wisconsin is far less competitive in this year's House races than for Senate and President, it does have three races that have been considered competitive, namely the seats held by Paul Ryan, Sean Duffy, and Reid Ribble. In addition, there is a vacancy left by Tammy Baldwin's Senate run. This diary summarizes what the Democratic candidates will need in each county to pick up WI-01, WI-07, and WI-08, as well as what the Republican candidate will need to pick up WI-02. While I do not expect any of these seats to flip, I would place them in the following order from most to least competitive: WI-07, WI-08, WI-01, WI-02. Also, if anyone knows how to make neat tables in diaries, please tell me how in the comments.
WI-07 (Duffy):
The predecessor to this seat was once considered a safe seat for David Obey, who survived even the wave of 1994, but the area's Republican trend weakened Obey's position until 2010, when he retired in the face of poor reelection polling. The seat then fell to Ashland County DA and "The Real World" star Sean Duffy. Duffy was shored up in redistricting by moving several Democratic counties in the southern part of the district to WI-03, giving WI-07 an EVEN PVI and WI-03 a D+6 PVI, where both seats had been D+3 before. Still, Duffy is somewhat controversial, and he's attracted a strong challenger in former state senator Pat Kreitlow, who represented the Senate district now held by Terry Moulton. Previous to his service as State Senator, Kreitlow was an anchor on the local news station, WEAU 13, which serves much of the district. While Duffy has outraised Kreitlow by a decent margin, he is far from safe considering the ancestral Democratic tendencies of the area. Many parts of this rural district are marginal for grain farming due to the short growing season, so the timber, cranberry, and potato industries play a large role in the local economy.
As Kreitlow is from Chippewa Falls, he'll probably overperform in farm country and underperform in the Twin Cities and Wausau suburbs, where his populism won't go over as well. The key for him is to do decently in the timber counties, especially in the western part of the district.
County % of total 2008 vote Kreitlow Duffy
Ashland 2.30% 65% 35%
Barron 6.14% 51% 49%
Bayfield 2.54% 60% 40%
Burnett 2.33% 47% 53%
Chippewa (part) 3.33% 49% 51%
Clark 3.80% 51% 49%
Douglas 6.46% 64% 36%
Florence 0.72% 39% 61%
Forest 1.26% 53% 47%
Iron 0.92% 52% 48%
Jackson (part) 0.27% 46% 54%
Juneau (part) 0.72% 45% 55%
Langlade 2.79% 47% 53%
Lincoln 4.09% 51% 49%
Marathon 18.22% 50% 50%
Monroe (part) 0.57% 44% 56%
Oneida 5.88% 50% 50%
Polk 6.07% 44% 56%
Price 2.20% 53% 47%
Rusk 1.95% 50% 50%
Sawyer 2.44% 50% 50%
St. Croix 12.02% 43% 57%
Taylor 2.51% 47% 53%
Vilas 3.69% 44% 56%
Washburn 2.45% 49% 51%
Wood (part) 4.34% 53% 47%
Total 100% 50.02% 49.98%
WI-08 (Ribble):
While Obama actually did better here than in WI-07, this district contains what was once the most conservative region of the state. WI-08 is probably the most economically diverse district in the state, with an urban center (Green Bay), lots of suburbs, several industrial towns of varying fortunes (Appleton's doing pretty well, Manitowoc not so much), several types of agricultural areas (Corn Belt, dairy, and fruit), a large lumber and paper industry, and tourist-rich Door County. It was represented by Democrat Steve Kagen from 2007-2011, but Kagen lost to Reid Ribble in 2010. Ribble's challenger, Green Bay businessman Jamie Wall, is decently funded, but Ribble has been far more careful than Duffy and has a redder district, so he's favored. That said, the race is lightly polled, and the committees are invested there, so Wall could pull of the upset. This is probably what it would look like, with Wall doing well in more suburban areas, particularly Brown County:
County % of total 2008 vote Wall Ribble
Brown 34.33% 52% 48%
Calumet 7.29% 44% 56%
Door 4.81% 53% 47%
Kewaunee 2.97% 50% 50%
Marinette 5.85% 48% 52%
Menominee 0.40% 84% 16%
Oconto 5.22% 47% 53%
Outagamie 25.19% 52% 48%
Shawano 5.53% 46% 54%
Waupaca 7.02% 46% 54%
Winnebago (part) 1.40% 37% 63%
Total 100% 50.1% 49.9%
WI-01 (Ryan)
Voters in this southeastern Wisconsin district have Paul Ryan on their ballots twice- first as Vice President and second as US Representative. While this district is a swing district like WI-07 and WI-08, with a R+3 PVI (it was only marginally improved in redistricting), that's because it's composed of a fairly equal mix of dark red and dark blue areas rather than purple areas as is the case with the northern districts. That said, Paul Ryan is normally able to hold down the margins in the bluer areas of this district, such as his hometown of Janesville in Rock County, through his rather generous constituent services. This cycle, he has a legitimate challenger in Kenosha County Supervisor Rob Zerban, but he's very entrenched and should survive, especially since Zerban has been running to the left for fundraising purposes. If Rob Zerban proves the netroots right and the pundits wrong, this is probably what the results would look like (note that the Milwaukee County portion is suburban and rather red):
County % of total 2008 vote Zerban Ryan
Kenosha 21.46% 60% 40%
Milwaukee (part) 13.72% 45% 55%
Racine 27.46% 54% 46%
Rock (part) 11.08% 61% 39%
Walworth (part) 12.07% 44% 56%
Waukesha (part) 14.21% 30% 70%
Total 100% 50.1% 49.9%
Note that these benchmarks imply a complete collapse of Ryan's support in the urban parts of the district, particularly Kenosha.
WI-02 (OPEN)
Partisans on both sides of the aisle often underestimate the intensity of their opponents' strongholds. On our side, we have people who think this will be the year that constituents of Eric Cantor, John Boehner, and Pete Sessions will finally realize their Representatives are complete teabaggers and vote them out, especially if their challenger is a loud, proud progressive. On the Republican side, there are these people. In "appreciation" of the remarkable tenacity of Chad Lee's supporters, I've decided to do a set of benchmarks for the district where I live.
WI-02 is commonly referred to as "the Madison district", as about 40% of the population resides in the City of Madison. The remainder is about evenly split between the Madison suburbs (entirely within Dane County) and the rural portions of the district. In 1990, the suburbs were competitive and the rural areas were red, allowing moderate Republican Scott Klug to beat 30-year incumbent Bob Kastenmaier, who ran a campaign that made Oberstar's 2010 campaign seem vigilant. Surprisingly, Klug was able to hold on for the four terms he promised to limit himself to, fending off several Madison-based challengers including Mayor Paul Soglin. Once the seat was open, Republicans successfully gamed the primary by supporting the candidate they felt would be less electable, causing an openly lesbian Assemblywoman representing the ultra-liberal AD78 to beat a more moderate suburban state Senator, Joe Wineke. They were less successful in the general election, though it was a close race.
14 years later, the 'unelectable' Tammy Baldwin is running for Senate against the 'unbeatable' Tommy Thompson, and the seat is again open. The Democrats have again nominated an openly LGBT candidate from AD78 (Mark Pocan) over a suburbanite (Kelda Roys), this time without ratfucking. The Republicans, however, nominated conservative businessman Chad Lee instead of a moderate like they ran in 1998 and 2000. This is about what he'd need to beat Mark Pocan:
County % of total 2008 vote Pocan Lee
Dane 72.18% 55% 45%
Green 4.72% 34% 66%
Iowa 3.05% 38% 62%
Lafayette 2.00% 36% 64%
Richland (part) 0.41% 39% 61%
Rock (part) 9.83% 40% 60%
Sauk 7.81% 34% 66%
Total 100% 49.9% 50.1%
The Lee margins in the rural counties are identical to what Klug won with in 1990, the best performance by a non-incumbent Republican in the last 50 years. Klug only lost Dane County 52-48, but Dane County has trended leftward even faster than the rural counties in WI-02. It would take some doing on the part of both candidates for the Republican to only lose Dane County by 10 points. Pocan is simply not that Democrat, and Lee is simply not that Republican. Safe D.