as many of you probably know, Democrat Mark Herring went ahead today (although not yet on the state website) as a result of actions in Richmond.
Going in to today, Obenshain led by 17.
As expected the missing machine with a net of 116 for Herring was accepted.
There were net 16 other additions for Herring.
As of earlier today, Herring has, at least theoretically, a 115 vote lead (I am going to use this number, and not the number that a Democratic official floated of 135, which would make the math even more devastating).
As far as we know, what is left is provisionals in Fairfax (493, of which county has already accepted 136) and a number of other jurisdiction (total of approximately 134, or less than what Fairfax has already accepted).
Statewide, not including Fairfax, the acceptance rate has run about 36%.
Assume 40% of total for Fairfax, and that would be just under 200 votes - if Herring took by the same margin he won the county (around 22%) he would widen his margin by about 43 votes to 158.
Simply put - even if every other provisional were accepted and were for Obenshain, he could not catch up.
Or if you will, with just the 136 currently in play from Fairfax, at 20% that would be 27 more votes for Herring, for a total margin of 142.
In other words, absent someone finding more votes for Obenshain other than provisionals, Herring will be ahead when the vote is certified, and then the burden will be on his opponent.