We finally have 1 nominally mainstream polling organization whose results are generally well publicized in the national political media acknowledging the presence of a Braley surge. Quinnipiac's last minute poll of Iowa has the race between Democrat Bruce Braley and Republican Joni Ernst tied at 47% with 4% undecided among likely voters. That's right. Even in a likely voter model which tends to skew Republican, Bruce Braley has erased a 4 point gap as compared to Q's prior poll (which had Ernst +4). That now makes, over the past week, 2 polls with the race tied, 2 with Braley ahead, and 3 with Ernst by no more than 2 points and 1 with Ernst ahead by 7. It should also be noted that one of the pro-Ernst polls has Braley ahead by 6 points among registered voters (so I count that as a tie).
That is to say, the Democrats are very much in the game. If we win Iowa, game over, we keep the US Senate.
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