Get ready for another round of national security theater, this time starring Team Red instead of Team Blue.
Cross posted from Pruning Shears.
I'll likely be unable to reply to comments until tomorrow afternoon at the earliest, please be patient if you are looking for a response.
There's one aspect of the surveillance state that I expect Congress to fix soon. Namely, putting the expiration of provisions like those in the Patriot Act - temporarily protecting America for fourteen years and counting - in lame duck "news dump" sessions at the end of the year. Because as it stands now even seemingly innocuous dates can come at inconvenient political moments.
Barack Obama found that out in 2008 when he was in the midst of the tightest Democratic nomination contest in memory. While it was in doubt he opposed surveillance so resolutely that he threatened to filibuster over it. Then once he had the nomination he decided it wasn't so bad after all as long as he kept a close eye on it. After he became president he realized it was actually kind of awesome.
The action is on the Republican side this time around, though party dynamics need to be taken into account. State snooping wasn't a big issue for the GOP in 2008 because a Republican was president, which as we all know means issues like domestic spying, deficits, foreign policy and so on are politely ignored by conservatives - or at most subject to astringent harrumphing. Now that a Democrat is president it's all a Constitutional crisis. Of course, since domestic surveillance has historically been used more systematically against the left than the right (via, "according to a report the Congressional Black Caucus" etc), much of this is just for form's sake. But at least it's more than nothing.
The converse is somewhat true as well: some progressives who voiced principled opposition to the surveillance state have softened that stance - and sometimes even rationalized support for it - once a Democrat won the White House. Similarly, in contrast to ostentatiously loud conservatives, progressives might seem abnormally quiet. I suspect, though, that 2008 taught a lot of progressives that senior Democrats aren't stalwart defenders of civil liberties. Some pay lip service, but ultimately the fix is in. The whip counts get done, everything is set in place for passage, and then there will be an ineffectual show of opposition. One would have to be kind of foolish to witness all that and still trust in party leadership, no?
The heavier use of surveillance against the left means liberals have more of a stake on the issue; they just aren't (or don't know how to be) up in arms about it. Recent history has produced real uncertainty over how exactly they can effectively express their discontent.
Anyway, the current beneficiary of surveillance expiration dates is Rand Paul. He's now a declared presidential candidate, so he's saying all the right things. Earlier this month he not only thundered "the president [which one, Senator?] created this vast dragnet" but promised to unilaterally end the practice if you'll just elect him president. (Bonus fun quote: "Your phone records are yours." This must have been news to AT&T.)
He still has to cast votes in his day job, though, and that's kind of a problem. Last November he pretty much singlehandedly assured the passage of the USA Freedom Act - Sam Spade had these guys pegged - on the grounds that killing reform would allow him to fight for even MOAR AND BETTER FREEDOMSES in 2015.1 OK great, so 2015 is here and the latest expiration date is now on the radar. According to the National Journal article "Paul has said he will fight to block the reauthorization," so get ready for the charades to begin.
Here's your basic road map for the near future. Much like Chris Dodd in 2008, Rand Paul will say all kinds of dramatic things about self-government and freedom and so on. He may even, like Dodd, threaten a filibuster because he feels so gosh darn strongly about it. Then the expiration date will loom, we will all hear about how the terrorist killers are going to murder our children in their sleep, super patriot Rand Paul will suddenly find himself unable to muster enough votes to do anything, he will dramatically introduce amendments that get voted down, and just prior to passage he will stride to the Senate floor and quote some Thomas Paine or Ben Franklin, or perhaps Neil Peart.
This isn't leadership, it's "leadership" - doing enough to appear active but not enough to risk success. That's how surveillance reauthorizations happen. Those who are in an awkward position will be permitted to do just enough to fail. The wheels for passage turn quietly in the background, there's token resistance, and in the end the thing gets done. On the plus side we'll get to see some mild irritation from the base, watch the Cato Institute play act its disappointment, and there will be a certain amount of discomfort (to be determined by Ted Cruz). Enjoy the show, just please don't be under any illusions in the coming weeks when you hear Rand Paul yelp about liberty.
Stay tuned for future episodes, soon to be scheduled for 3 PM on Christmas Eve.
NOTES
It seems to have been largely forgotten that Hillary Clinton ended up voting against the FISA Amendments Act. While it came across as little more than a jab at a political rival (when has she shown up on the issue before or since?), it actually makes her a more credible civil libertarian than Paul. At least she's cast one vote in the right direction. It probably won't be a campaign issue, and if it is, it might put her on defense depending on how much fearmongering is happening. But as it stands right now she's got a more substantive record on the issue, even if by accident.
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