Newly inaugurated Oregon Gov. Kate Brown
John Kitzhaber's resignation only weeks after starting his fourth term set off a variety of cascading effects in Oregon's political scene, putting then-Secretary of State and fellow Democrat Kate Brown into the governor's chair but also setting in motion an unusual 2016 special election. Republicans have had miserable luck trying to win back the governor's mansion even in midterm years, and they've been locked out since Vic Atiyeh left office in 1987. While you might think a special election after a scandalous resignation would give the out-party a shot, here it's against the backdrop of presidential turnout, so it's going to be even more of an uphill climb for the GOP. Brown has not officially announced she'll run, but it would be a massive surprise if she calls it quits next year.
But the GOP and some Democrats are watching for any vulnerability from Brown, who is still introducing herself to the state. Head below the fold for a look at who might oppose her next year.
Team Red doesn't have much of a bench in Oregon. They don't hold any statewide offices at all, and the only Republican in the state's congressional delegation, Rep. Greg Walden, isn't going to be giving up his powerful and secure post in Washington anytime soon. The state GOP has needed to rely on legislators from the conservative parts of the state or unelected self-funders past cycles, and that seems to be the type of candidate they're looking at this time. According to the Portland Tribune, the two likeliest candidates sound like businessman and former state party chair Allen Alley and physician Bud Pierce.
Pierce, a first-time candidate and former head of the Oregon Medical Association, so far is the only Republican officially running. He has access to lots of large wallets but he also has a resume uncomfortably similar to disastrous 2014 U.S. Senate nominee Monica Wehby. Alley, who served briefly as Democratic Gov. Ted Kulongoski's deputy chief of staff, was the GOP's nominee for state treasurer in 2008, where he lost by a respectable 51-45 margin. He also placed second in the 2010 gubernatorial primary, so he has something of a "next in line" argument to make. And sure enough, Alley confirms in the article that he's "seriously considering."
The article also mentions several other potential players. One is Gresham Mayor Shane Bemis. Despite the fact that you've probably never heard of it, Gresham, a blue-collar suburb east of Portland, is actually Oregon's fourth-largest city. Another option is state Rep. Julie Parrish, an up-and-comer from Portland's wealthier southern suburbs. Parrish denied interest in a statewide run in a press conference earlier this week, though she didn't definitively rule anything out.
The Oregonian separately mentions one other state representative as a possibility. Sherrie Sprenger, the minority whip, says she's "been approached" about running. Her record, however, seems significantly more conservative than the other options. She's also from a rural district further south in the Willamette Valley, so she won't start with much of any name recognition in the Portland market, where two-thirds of the state lives.
Local Republicans' first choice might be state Rep. Knute Buehler. He only started in the House this year, but he already has experience running statewide, running a credible race against Brown in the 2012 secretary of state race in his first attempt at a campaign. However, he says he's "in no hurry," and the Tribune takes that to mean that he has no plans to run.
With all that in mind, local Republican pollster Moore Information (apparently not acting on any candidate's behalf at this point) just took the first look at the general election, pitting the likeliest candidates against Brown. They also poll Brown against ex-state Rep. Dennis Richardson, who lost by single digits to Kitzhaber in the 2014 election:
• 47-32 vs. Alley
• 45-26 vs. Bemis
• 45-27 vs. Pierce
• 48-41 vs. Richardson
Richardson fares the best thanks to residual name recognition, but he stated in February that he has "
no intention" of running again. Of course, that statement is a little short of Shermanesque.
However, there's also the wee matter of the Democratic primary. Several Democrats were laying the groundwork to run in 2018 when they thought Kitzhaber was going to be termed out. Now, they may decide to take on the unelected Brown next year rather than wait for her to leave office in 2022. State Treasurer Ted Wheeler, who probably the most prominent statewide Democrat after Brown, seems like the most likely to challenge her. He's also looking for something else to do, since he's term-limited in 2016 (he was appointed to his job in 2010 after Ben Westlund's death).
Despite earlier reports that the treasurer was telling associates he wouldn't campaign against Brown, Wheeler now acknowledges that he's "considering" the gubernatorial race, but confirms that he's considering the Portland mayor's race as well, also up in 2016. That would also mean a challenge to incumbent Democrat Charlie Hales, but that might be more fruitful for Wheeler. Parts of Portland's business community have been urging Wheeler to run for mayor rather than take on Brown. While Hales is pretty establishment-flavored himself, and in good graces with the city's real estate developers, several business groups are closer to Wheeler and skeptical of the mayor.
But if Wheeler still hopes to run for governor someday, the polarizing job of Portland mayor isn't a good stepping-stone to that. Serving as Portland's chief executive is an easy way to turn yourself simultaneously into an establishment tool in the eyes of Portlanders and a wild-eyed liberal to the rest of the state. In all of state history, only Neil Goldschmidt has ever made that leap, and he had a long stint away from Portland (including U.S. Secretary of Transportation) before he won the governor's mansion in 1986.
A few other Democrats, including state House Speaker Tina Kotek and state Labor Commissioner Brad Avakian, have also been mentioned as potential gubernatorial candidates, though they've said little about their plans. A lot will depend on how Brown fares in the next year. If Brown has a smooth governorship, her intra-party rivals (as well as some Republicans) will probably decide to pass on 2016. But if Brown stumbles, we can expect a lot more action. Either way, we'll be watching this contest closely at Daily Kos Elections.