After recapping the Tesla Powerwall last week-end, I commented that I would dig into the tech and the price points, a bit more critically this week-end.
SOOOOO, here are a few note-worthy articles that might be worth your time, especially if you see yourself as an "early adopter" of this market-shaking "transition technology."
The first article, somewhat critical of Tesla, tries to shake out their "true price points," among other things (like grid pay-backs). Overall though, they seem somewhat enthused about Tesla's practical entries into this critical sector.
Top Ten Facts about Tesla’s $350/kWh (DC) PowerWall battery
by Bruce Lin and Matthew Klippenstein, CatalyticEngineering.com -- May 8, 2015
[...]
6. The all-in price is twice the $350/kWh ‘wow’ number, but still impressive
The core cell cost that enables this $350/kWh cost is believable. Earlier this year Swedish researchers polled a number of battery electric vehicle manufacturers on their proprietary cost structures, and estimated that Nissan and Tesla are currently at $200-$300 per kWh for the battery pack. The PowerWall sale price is an excellent real-world confirmation that manufacturing prices really are in this range.
However, the $3,000 or $3,500 cost is for the DC system only -- be careful to compare apples to apples when looking at other products. For example, the inverter will add around $1,000 to $2,000 to the cost of the device.
As another real-world point, SolarCity is quoting $7,140 to add the PowerWall to a solar installation (includes inverter, maintenance contract, installation, control system). This doesn’t sound unreasonable, and again $700/kWh for a small home-scale system is very cheap, though as mentioned above, multiple PowerWalls may be needed for many customers. SolarCity is doing well with this sort of deal -- the price is for new solar installations only, where SolarCity would have to install an inverter, control system, and wiring anyway, so it’s cheap for them to kill two birds with one stone.
Musk was being slightly misleading in his 2015Q1 earnings call when he said the inverter is part of a solar installation and should not be counted in the cost. Either SolarCity’s $7,000 includes the inverter cost, or the inverter cost is assigned to the solar part of the install, and other factors are raising the cost to $7,000. Either way the true price is more like $700/kWh (AC installed)
[...]
This next article, much more critical of Tesla, points out Tesla is late to the sector party -- and Tesla is using tech that is 'far from cutting edge'. They suggest checking out Tesla's competition, before going all-in on the Powerwall -- simply because of a slick product launch.
Battery Wars: Is Tesla Setting Up A House Of Cards?
by Chip Register, CEO of Sapient Consulting; forbes.com -- 5/14/2015
[...]
But the biggest risk for Tesla isn’t in Asia; rather, it’s in its own backyard, where companies are exploring alternative battery technologies and driving real innovation. All old-technology, lithium-ion batteries, including those produced in Asia, suffer the same deep-discharge cycle life limitations as Tesla’s does. The economics are simply limited by the fact that you can only recharge the battery so many times before it has to be replaced. Currently, that number seems to be around 1,000 cycles.
A new U.S. based manufacturer, Alevo, claims to have solved this problem with a new spin on the old lithium-ion battery chemistry. Alevo’s battery employs lithium iron phosphate and graphite in combination with some sort of “inorganic electrolyte,” which the company’s founder, Norwegian entrepreneur Jostein Eikeland, calls the company’s “secret sauce.” The battery can supposedly be cycled over 40,000 times, making it extremely durable and cost effective for utilities hoping to make grid-level solar generation a reality in the US. That said, Alevo has much to do to live up to its claims as the company is just now building out manufacturing capacity and has deployed few, if any, commercial battery systems.
Eos Energy Storage, another emerging player, is farther along with a brand new idea. It has been developing its zinc hybrid cathode battery for the better part of a decade and is now selling what it claims is the lowest cost battery storage solution on the market. Priced at $160/kWh, Eos’ Aurora battery [vs $250/kWh for Tesla's Powerwall] is a containerized 1MW/4MWh DC battery system that provides four hours of continuous discharge and greater than 15 year life or 5,000 daily full charge/discharge cycles. This price point and performance makes energy storage look economic on the grid, and allows Eos batteries to displace utilities’ most expensive peaking generation on a levelized cost of energy basis.
[...]
This last article is more philosophical in content. The author has much to say about Visionaries like Elon Musk (who he compares to the fictional Tony Stark, of Iron-Man fame), having the unique power to change society, by capturing our collective imaginations with truly transformative, yet approachable technology. It is well worth reading -- especially if you simply want to re-kindle that hope, for a fossil-free future somewhere down the consumerism road.
"Elon Musk's Powerwall could change the carbon footprint of entire societies"
by Dan Hill, dezeen magazine, dezeen.com -- 14 May 2015
[...]
Musk positioned the Powerwall as a more pragmatic innovation, as the way to positively move our energy consumption away from fossil fuels and their absurdly damaging generation and distribution models, and to shift our homes, transport and industry to renewable energy sources instead, principally solar energy.
It's the first time that anybody has coherently and confidently aimed the storage battery at a domestic market. I mean really. There have been domestic storage products for years, but Tesla's are the first to capture the imagination, to draw scalability and reliability from its electric car business, while halving the price overnight, with the entry-level unit coming in at $3,000.
[...]
The scale of ambition, rather than the scale of the object, is the impressive feature of Tesla's thinking under Musk. While the fuss is over the design of an object -- and if the Powerwall embodies a mainstream movement away from fossil fuels, then there will be no more alluring sight on earth -- it's the system design, the more fluid layer of services that is overlaid onto our existing infrastructures, that is the truly transformational possibility, predicated on this increasingly intriguing skirmish between Moore's law and physical laws.
That form of design, rather than traditional architectural thinking, is the force driving our cities now, just as previous generations of technology did.
I hope you find these articles informative and useful. They were the most 'incisive' I could find, from a wide variety out there. Those snippets were selected to encourage you to click the links, and learn more.
As always, Do your own Homework, and some competitive shopping -- before committing to any major purchase. Especially for purchases with life-changing implications.
May the best-tech for a carbon-constrained planet, actually win the war for your hard-earned dollars.
May Tech Visionaries keep giving us practical carbon-constraining solutions, with price-points worthy of our attention.