Caesar:
Who is it in the press that calls on me?
I hear a tongue shriller than all the music
Cry "Caesar!" Speak, Caesar is turn'd to hear.
Soothsayer:
Beware the ides of March.
Caesar:
What man is that?
Brutus:
A soothsayer bids you beware the ides of March.
Unlike in previous primaries when Florida was one of the first primary states, in 2016 they will be holding their primary six weeks after Iowa and after 19 other states/territories have already voted. This change in the primary schedule will have a considerable impact on this year's GOP race, and Florida, once again, will be the key to the nomination.
Four years ago Florida was the 4th primary state after Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. You may remember that Florida is the state that effectively knocked Gingrich out of the race. Gingrich was coming off a big win in South Carolina 10 days earlier where he had won 40% of the popular vote and 23 of the state's 25 delegates, and his campaign was picking up steam after both Rick Perry and Herman Cain had withdrawn giving Gingrich the coveted Not-Romney mantle. But after his double-digit loss to Romney in Florida (46% to 32%) Gingrich was never again a factor in the race. Four days after Florida he predictably lost big to Romney in Nevada, thanks to Nevada's large Mormon population, then in the weeks to come he would place third or fourth behind Romney, Santorum, and Paul in every primary thereafter. Gingrich's sudden fall after Florida resulted in Santorum's rise, but Santorum and Paul, although pesky, never posed anything more than a speedbump on Romney's road to the nomination.
Similarly in 2008, going into Florida's late January primary (8th in the country), almost all polls showed a margin-of-error toss-up between McCain and Romney, with Giuliani a distant third. Giuliani's campaign strategy was to forego the early states and focus entirely on Florida which, had it worked, would have forever changed how presidential campaigns thereafter perceive the importance of Iowa and New Hampshire (so I give him credit for that). Unfortunately for Giuliani, though, the strategy failed miserably and he withdrew the very day after Florida's primary. (Rudy, we hardly knew ye.)
A loss in Florida that year, and their 55 winner-take-all delegates, would have almost certainly sunk McCain's campaign, and it would would have been Romney, not McCain, heading into Super Tuesday with a lead and momentum. Here was the scoreboard before Florida:
* Romney - three states won (Wyoming, Michigan, and Nevada) and 65 delegates
* McCain - two states won (New Hampshire and South Carolina) and 38 delegates
* Huckabee - one state won (Iowa) and 27 delegates
Had Romney won Florida it would have put him at 120 delegates, more than three times as many as McCain, and provided him with vital momentum going into Super Tuesday with delegate-rich primaries in Massachusetts, New York, Illinois, California, Missouri, and New Jersey hanging in the balance, all states that Romney stood an excellent chance of winning.
As I said, shortly after John McCain's Florida win early favorite Rudy Guiliani withdrew from the race. Romney stayed through the following week's Super Tuesday primaries, but his defeat in Florida by such a narrow margin (36% to 31%) was a crushing blow. And then, despite winning 7 of the 21 states voting on Super Tuesday (but only Massachusetts among the big six), Romney suspended his campaign two days later, leaving only Mike Huckabee, Ron Paul, and Alan Keyes to challenge McCain down the stretch. Huckabee would eventually win a few Southernish states, but McCain easily swept to the nomination winning 2/3 of all the delegates. Clearly it was McCain's win in Florida that turned the tide in his favor.
(One has to wonder if Romney would have been perceived more favorably than McCain, more of a competent and knowledgable manager of the economy, during the economic collapse in October right before the General Election, and then leveraged that perception to win the election. After all, Romney made his fortune rescuing, or at least retooling, financially collapsed companies. You'd also have to suspect that Romney would not have selected Sarah Palin as a running mate.)
So Florida, at least in the past two presidential-year cycles, is a make or break state. In fact, every Republican nominee since the modern primary system was implemented has also won the Florida primary, and in 2008 and 2012 Florida proved to be pivotal game-changing wins for the eventual nominee.
In 2016 the Florida primary will be held on March 15th, the Ides of March, and like I said, 20 other states will have already held their primaries by then. And unlike the previous years when Florida was penalized half their delegate count for moving their primary up, this year the state will have all 99 of their delegates, the third highest delegate count after California and Texas.
Now here's the important part: every Republican primary held on March 14th or earlier will award their delegates on a proportional basis, meaning that no one candidate could likely win the nomination before late-voting states get to hold their primaries. States voting on March 15th or later will award their delegates on a winner-take-all basis, meaning candidates will likely pay more attention to them, and invest more time and money trying to win them.
Delegate-rich states that fall in the proportional-allocation category include Texas (155), North Carolina (72), Ohio (66), Michigan (59), and Virginia (49). Their importance in delegate count, then, will be watered down significantly by this allocation.
The first big winner-take-all states will be Florida (99), Illinois (69), and Missouri (52), all held on March 15th. The two other big winner-take-all primaries, California (172) and New Jersey (51), aren't scheduled until June 7th, the last date on the primary schedule, at which time the nominee will almost certainly be decided. (New York's primariy (95) is still unscheduled, as are Georgia, Washington, and Colorado. One has to wonder if George Pataki is lobbying New York's primary to be scheduled for March 15th as well. A May or June primary for New York would likely be too late for him.)
So here's what I think: considering the following factors the race will be far from over by the Ides of March rolls around --
1. There's an unprecedented number of candidates running, nearly all with at least some credibility, electoral achievement, and entrenched support
2. There will be fewer debates to separate the wheat from the chaff, and due to the number of debate participants it's unlikely one candidate will have enough air-time to make a significant, lastin, and separating impression
3. At this point no one candidate is the clear frontrunner or the clear Establishment favorite, indeed, there have already been five frontrunners in various polls since January (Bush, Walker, Rubio, Huckabee, and Carson; and Paul and Cruz have both been close seconds).
4. Unlike previous years when the GOP Establishment coalesced quickly behind one candidate, this year they appear to divided between Bush, Rubio, and Christie; and Graham, Kasich and Pataki will also draw Establishment appeal if they enter.
5. On the other end of the spectrum, the Christian conservatives, which account for the majority of Republicans, already have Walker, Cruz, Carson, and Huckabee to choose from, and perhaps Santorum and Jindal as well (Pence appears to be out). Meanwhile, Carly Fiorina, while the fringest candidate, has her own niche being the only candidate from the West Coast in the race, the only candidate with a solid business background (a presidential prerequisite, according to Romney), as well as the only woman, which, according to some, would be a nullifying factor against Hillary if Carly were to win the nomination.
6. Due to Citizens United there will be money enough from individual billionaires and handfuls of collective millionaire benefactors to keep even non-feasible fringe candidates in the race far longer than in past years. Four years ago both Gingrich and Santorum stayed in the race much longer than expected due to their deep-pocket benefactors. This year there will be no shortage of like-minded benefactors, including the Koch Brothers who have an endless supply of money, and Sheldon Adelson and Foster Friess, both of whom have indicated their checkbooks are out again this year, with even more added to the mix, such as casino mogul Steve Wynn and hedge-fund magnate Robert Mercer (an early supporter of Ted Cruz).
7. Up to March 15th, delegates are being allocated on a proportionate basis which will severely limit a single candidate's ability to accumulate an insurmountable number of delegates even in the event of multiple early wins.
Historically it's been Super Tuesday which creates space between the frontrunner and the also-rans, and it's when the Super Tuesday dust clears when campaigns start rolling up their carpet. As mentioned above, it was Super Tuesday in 2008 that essentially ended Romney's campaign despite his second-place position in delegate count at the time. But things will be different this time around. In 2008, 21 states held their primaries on Super Tuesday. Currently only nine states have their primaries scheduled on Super Tuesday in 2016 (March 1st), which is scheduled a mere 10 days after the third-on-the-schedule South Carolina primary. While a few candidates are almost certain to suspend campaigns after Super Tuesday 2016, chances are at least a half dozen, if not many more, will start preparing more earnestly for the following week's primaries in, among other states, Ohio (66) and Michigan (59). And the week after that comes the Ides of March, and whatever knives have been sheathed up to then, will certainly be drawn.
So it'll be the Ides of March that will take the air out of most of the upright-but-teetering campaigns because after that it's all math. After those three March 15th winner-take-all primaries only half the states remain and the mathematical probabilities of winning the nomination will start to diminish rapidly for those who aren't, and haven't been, competing for first place. And once again, whoever wins Florida and its 99 delegates will become the instant frontrunner going into the final months.
So here you have to naturally assume that Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio have the inside track (and I'll bet dollars to donuts they will both still be in the race at that time) due to their Native Son status. However, if Bush and Rubio split the Native Son vote (and there's no reason to believe they won't to some degree) then a third candidate, say a Christian conservative type such as Huckabee or Cruz, can certainly jump in a steal the state with just, say 30-35% of the vote, depending on the size and make-up of the field at the time. Or then again, depending on the status of the delegate count at the time and what the polls are saying (especially in Florida), it might be a good time for either Bush or Rubio to get together and cut The Deal. That is, one withdraws and endorses the other with the tacit agreement of becoming the running mate. I can't imagine a more formidable Republican ticket for the General than Bush/Rubio or Rubio/Bush, especially in competing for the all-important state of Florida in the General.
So, Beware the Ides of March. It will be then, and not until then, that we know who the Republican nominee will be.