Ever since the tea party started flexing its muscle in 2010, moderate Republicans have feared for their political lives, continually attracting primary challenges from the right.
There was Alaska's Sen. Lisa Murkowski, who lost her primary to the tea party's Joe Miller but ultimately prevailed as a write-in candidate in the general; South Carolina Rep. Bob Inglis, who's primary defeat brought us Rep. Trey Gowdy; and Indiana's six-term senator, Dick Lugar, whose triumphant tea party challenger, Richard Mourdock, imploded in the general election. That's just to name a few tea party casualties.
But when was the last time you heard of a Republican getting primaried from the left? In recent years, there’s been maybe a few examples at best and they’ve all been losers.
In 2012, Florida Republican Robert Crowder challenged tea party poster child Rep. Allen West and lost big after West garnered almost 75 percent of the vote. Crowder charged that West was part of the GOP's "radical fringe" and went on to support Florida Democrat Patrick Murphy, who defeated West in the general election.
During the 2014 midterms, Kansas firebrand Rep. Tim Huelskamp survived a closer challenge from fellow Republican Alan LaPolice, who targeted Huelskamp’s sponsorship of a bill that would have cut federal subsidies for ethanol (it's about a $1.5 billion per year industry in Kansas).
So all of two notable "moderate" GOP primary challengers—both unsuccessful—spring to mind since 2010. But this week may have set up a third after news broke that Indiana Gov. Mike Pence would skip the GOP’s 2016 presidential cattle call and instead simply focus on saving his gubernatorial seat.
For more on a potential GOP primary from the left, head below the fold.
Whether the embattled governor can even eek out a re-election is in serious doubt given the damage Indiana sustained following passage of a Pence-supported antigay "religious freedom" bill that generated a national firestorm. Pence’s approval ratings tanked, dropping 20-plus points (from 66 percent to 45 percent) in a matter of several months.
In the middle of that fallout, the CEO of the Indianapolis-based Angie’s List, Bill Oesterle, explained that the company had withdrawn plans for a $40-million expansion of its headquarters due to recruiting concerns following the debacle.
"We had hoped to centralize all of our activities in Indianapolis, where the vast vast majority of our employees exist," Oesterle said. "The developments of this past week however have changed our view on that project."
The announcement was one of the first indications of just how serious Pence and his right-wing allies had overplayed their hand. But a few weeks later, Oesterle
stepped down as CEO,
saying that he wanted to get more "civically involved in the state of Indiana." He did not rule out running for governor.
Oesterle, a Republican, has a stellar resume on which to mount such a GOP bid. He not only co-founded and ran a multi-million dollar company for two decades, he also served as the campaign manager for Mitch Daniels’ successful 2004 run for governor.
To be clear, Oesterle has not been specific about his intentions since stepping down. But he definitely views this as a fight for the soul of the Republican Party in Indiana and he's ramping up for something big. As Matthew Tully reported:
He said details will come later, but the new organization he is contemplating could seek to counter the influence of socially conservative Republicans, who tend to play an outsized role in low-turnout primaries. Given his connections and the widespread frustration that many other Republicans share, his new organization would have little trouble raising huge sums of money and could play a part in the upcoming open-seat U.S. Senate primary, as well as in state legislative races.
That does not necessarily imply a gubernatorial bid, but if ever the idea put a twinkle in Oesterle’s eye, now would be the time to run. And such a campaign would set up one of the first major GOP primaries in the nation in recent memory where the candidate who leaned slightly left of the Republican incumbent actually stood a chance of winning.
What’s even more remarkable is that such a political dynamic, if it comes to be, will have been created by a GOP challenger who championed pro-LGBT protections while his rival successfully stewarded anti-LGBT legislation through the state legislature.
If Oesterle runs, he will almost certainly run on a pro-business platform rather than touting his LGBT stances. But the opening for such a candidacy, which has been almost unheard of in the last handful of years, was indeed created by an outpouring of LGBT support in a solidly red state. Imagine that.