The winner of the Republican Trumpstakes may likely be Ted Cruz.
Cruz understands the sentiment of rank-and-file Republicans, which of course is anti-immigrant, minority, women, LGBT, and anything-Obama. While he has failed to articulate that sentiment well enough to give his campaign traction, he recognizes that Trump has been able to effectively do so. It is no coincidence that while most of the other candidates have been flailing in desperate attempts to stop Trump, Cruz has embraced him. Follow below for reasons why Cruz may emerge from this election cycle as the big Republican winner.
Many observers suggest the reason for Cruz’s bellying-up to Trump is the belief that when Trump falls, Cruz will be the likely heir to his supporters. However, it could be that Cruz is playing a longer game. An idea that two months ago seemed implausible may actually happen – Trump could very well be the nominee. In that case, having Cruz as his running mate would be mutually beneficial to both.
What does Trump get? First, he gains someone with a fair amount of government experience to shore up Trump’s deficiency in that regard. Yes, we can argue how poorly Cruz has used that experience; but it is a factor nonetheless. It would add more credibility to the campaign than a general or another business person. Second, he gains a person who shares his anti-everything philosophy. Third, he consolidates a strong base of Republican rank-and-file support. Some have argued that Trump will not choose anyone who might outshine him – I doubt Trump really has that fear about anyone, certainly not Cruz.
What does Cruz get? First, he gets a national stage. While most VP candidates take bus trips across Indiana, Cruz will get plenty of air time (and it’s likely he won’t blow the opportunity as Sarah Palin did). Second, if Trump wins the presidency (there is no emoticon that expresses that horror), he becomes vice president where he can have an important voice on policy matters and at a young enough age where he can build up his support for a presidential run himself. Third, and the whole reason for the long game, as is most likely, Trump will lose, and emerging out of that loss will be Ted Cruz as the de facto leader of the Republican Party.
In a sense this is a no-downside equation for Cruz. If Trump does in fact flame out, he gains Trump's supporters because he was not trashing him. If Trump gets the nomination, names Cruz his running mate and wins, Cruz has the stature of the vice presidency. If he names Cruz his running mate and they lose, Cruz becomes leader of the party.