OK ... I have grieved (and cried) a bit. Now I am trying to kick into problem-solving (or at least analysis mode). The next 4 years will be interesting. But I don't think they will play out in anything like a predictable way.
Trump has fluidly and casually lied about everything. He has said whatever he thought his audience wanted to hear. He has lied about his lying ... "I didn't say that". He is also lazy. He would rather cheat/lie/sue his way through a challenge than actually find a solution.
Prediction #1: He lied to everyone else, so he probably lied to his base. If he promised something that turns out to be hard ... "Really build a wall? I never said that"
Predication #2: He won't tolerate minions who don't deliver, especially if it is actually Trump's fault. He may appoint Sessions or Christie ... but only until they do something that creates backlash (10 min or so?) ... then his favorite phrase is "you're fired!"
Prediction #3: He won't totally, really repeal Obamacare because it is a lot harder than it looks. ACA has been in effect for 7+ years. Would you want to revert to the previous system? Where is that old software? Shit, I have to retrain all of my staff? Does anyone remember how we used to do that? What are the old codes? Do they mean what we think/thought they did? You mean our merger to exploit ACA is now an guaranteed loser?
Above all: Will the insurance company now accept that?
A full repeal would gut all of the procedures and operations across the entire industry. A lot of high rolling healthcare CEOs will have strokes.
Even cutting off the 20 million enrollees would cause heartburn. Do the math. Assume 20 million at $750/mo (some cash, some government) = $180 Billion/yr. How will the healthcare (and pharma) feel about that loss of revenue?
A full repeal of ACA is probably 100 times harder than closing Gitmo ... and we know about that!
The most likely scenario is that the Republicans will keep 85 to 90% of ACA, but kill a few recognizable provisions ... so they can just give it a new name.
Worry #1: Congressional Republicans are so freaking stupid that they might actually do an immediate, full repeal. Read the text of their most recent attempt: ... the money quote is:
"Effective on the date that is 180 days after the date of the enactment of this Act, the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (Public Law 111–148) is repealed, and the provisions of law amended or repealed by such Act are restored or revived as if such Act had not been enacted."
If they are really dumb enough to do that, I predict a run on popcorn.