This is to update from my diary of 11/1 which had updated numbers from 10/30. These numbers as reported on the Virginia Public Access Project (VPAP) site are from 11/3. Here is a link to that site for those that want to take a look and also play with the numbers function where you can enter in selected cities and counties to get their numbers. www.vpap.org/…
i want to premise these on a few caveats, these are raw numbers reported in and any voting tallies are purely my estimation using the polling from the Washington Post website on 11/1 that was also referenced in my last VA early voting diary.
As of 11/3 Virginians have cast 396,036 absentee ballots. These are from inperson voting as well as the traditional mail in ballot method. Their were 511,831 Absentee Applications filed. This includes the in person voting as well as the mail in ballots. The application for mail in ballots was due on 11/1 but in person voting is still going on until 5PM tomorrow.
As of now the numbers from the DC suburb area(counties of Fairfax and Arlington plus the cities of Alexandria, Fairfax, and Falls Church) was at 131,552 and from the NOVA exurbs (counties of Loudoun, Prince William, and the cities of Manasass and Manasass Park) was at 54589 for a grand total of 186141 or 47% of the total absentee votes turned in statewide so far. This area accounted for about 28% of the total ballots in 2012.
If we use the polling from the Post and estimate vote totals, Clinton leads in the DC suburbs by 56568 (65%-22%) and in the exurbs (47%-40%) by 3821 for a total of 60389. This would be an estimated increase of her lead of about 13,000 from 11/1. We also still have the reports from today and tomorrow to factor in
To put this in perspective, Obama won 2012 by 149,298 with a 231,194 ( my apologies from my 11/1 diary I wrote he won the total area by 195,000, that was only from the DC suburb area) vote cushion from the total DC and Northern VA Exurbs. Obama lost the rest of the state outside the total Northern Virginia area by 81896. If the polling holds I just can’t see Donald making up and finding an additional 150,000 plus more votes to offset the NOVA area, they would have to come from the southwest of Virginia and there are not enough high population centers to do the trick and most of them are college towns. Will report back tonight and Saturday
Comments are always welcomed.