It will probably be a long time before the first swing state is called tonight. For those of you wanting to read the tea leaves, here is a complete list of what time each state was called by the AP in 2012. I’ve also included Barrack Obama’s margin of victory as well as the Pollster.com polling averages for each state.
Clinton states called more quickly or Trump states called more slowly are a great sign for us. We can’t read too much into these numbers as the AP changes its methodology for calling states each election. Also note that the AP tends to be more conservative about calling states than the networks, so expect these times to be longer.
These calls were made within 5 minutes in 2012
7 PM: KY, VT
7:30 PM: WV
8:00 PM: CT, DE, IL, ME,MD,MA,OK,RI,DC
9:00 PM: KS, LA, MI, NE, NY, ND, SD, TX, WY
10:00 PM: UT
11:00 PM: CA, HI, ID, WA
I certainly don’t expect Michigan, Utah or Texas to be called so quickly this year
I made a couple of typos on the original chart. Hopefully, they are fixed now.
|
Race called |
time to call
(minutes)
|
obama
victory
margin
|
clinton polling lead |
7pm CLosing Time |
|
|
|
|
Georgia |
8:28 |
98 |
−7.82% |
-2% |
Indiana |
7:56 |
56 |
−10.20% |
-10% |
Kentucky |
7:00 |
0 |
−22.69% |
-22% |
South Carolina |
7:55 |
55 |
−10.47% |
-6% |
Vermont |
7:00 |
0 |
35.60% |
27% |
Virginia |
12:37 |
337 |
3.87% |
5% |
|
|
|
|
|
7:30 CLOSING TIME |
|
|
|
|
North Carolina |
10:53 |
173 |
−2.04% |
2% |
Ohio |
11:17 |
197 |
2.98% |
-1% |
West Virginia |
7:30 |
0 |
−26.76% |
-24% |
|
|
|
|
|
8:00 closing time |
|
|
|
|
Alabama |
8:46 |
46 |
−22.19% |
-19% |
Connecticut |
8:00 |
0 |
17.33% |
13% |
Delaware |
8:00 |
0 |
18.63% |
14% |
Florida |
next day |
long |
0.88% |
2% |
Illinois |
8:00 |
0 |
16.87% |
16% |
Maine |
8:00 |
0 |
15.29% |
9% |
Maryland |
8:00 |
0 |
26.08% |
28% |
Massachusetts |
8:00 |
0 |
23.14% |
33% |
Mississippi |
9:13 |
73 |
−11.50% |
-9% |
Missouri |
11:09 |
189 |
−9.38% |
-7% |
New Hampshire |
10:04 |
124 |
5.58% |
3% |
New Jersey |
9:10 |
70 |
17.81% |
12% |
Oklahoma |
8:00 |
0 |
−33.54% |
-25% |
Pennsylvania |
9:48 |
108 |
5.39% |
5% |
Rhode Island |
8:00 |
0 |
27.46% |
15% |
Tennessee |
8:21 |
21 |
−20.40% |
-13% |
Washington, DC |
8:00 |
0 |
14.87% |
14% |
|
|
|
|
|
8:30 closing time |
|
|
|
|
Arkansas |
9:10 |
40 |
−23.69% |
-17% |
|
|
|
|
|
9:00 closing time |
|
|
|
|
Arizona |
10:36 |
96 |
−9.06% |
-2% |
Colorado |
11:38 |
158 |
5.37% |
5% |
Kansas |
9:00 |
0 |
−21.72% |
-13% |
Louisiana |
9:00 |
0 |
−17.21% |
-12% |
Michigan |
9:00 |
0 |
9.50% |
6% |
Minnesota |
10:57 |
117 |
7.69% |
6% |
Nebraska |
9:00 |
0 |
−13.65% |
-16% |
New Mexico |
11:09 |
69 |
10.15% |
8% |
New York |
9:00 |
0 |
28.18% |
20% |
North Dakota |
9:00 |
0 |
−19.63% |
-22% |
South Dakota |
9:00 |
0 |
−18.02% |
-17% |
Texas |
9:00 |
0 |
−15.78% |
-5% |
Wisconsin |
11:47 |
167 |
6.94% |
6% |
Wyoming |
9:00 |
0 |
-40.82% |
-39% |
|
|
|
|
|
10:00 closing time |
|
|
|
|
Iowa |
11:19 |
79 |
5.81% |
-3% |
Montana |
12:42 |
162 |
−13.65% |
-16% |
Nevada |
11:54 |
114 |
6.68% |
2% |
Utah |
10:00 |
0 |
−48.04% |
-9% |
|
|
|
|
|
11:00 closing time |
|
|
|
|
California |
11:00 |
0 |
23.12% |
23% |
Hawaii |
11:00 |
0 |
42.71% |
28% |
Idaho |
11:00 |
0 |
−31.91% |
-20% |
Oregon |
11:29 |
29 |
12.09% |
10% |
Washington |
11:00 |
0 |
14.87% |
14% |
|
|
|
|
|
1:00 closing time |
|
|
|
|
Alaska |
1:57 |
57 |
−13.99% |
-7% |
|
|
|
|
|