Based on the exit polls, Hillary did not really under-perform among white voters. She under-performed among non-white voters. In 2012, the white vote was 72% of the electorate and went 39/59. In 2016, the white vote was down to only 70% and went 37/58. So the Dems lost two points, the Reps lost one point, but the group was 2% less. So no real effect on the outcome compared to 2012.
The issue is with the non-white vote. Black/African-Americans went down from 13% to 12% of voters, but more important, went from a 93/6 split to a 88/8 split. Dems down 5 points and Reps up 2. But the real SHOCKER is the Hispanic/Latino vote. They ticked up from 10% to 11% of voters, but went from a 71/27 split to a 65/29 split. How is this result possible? How did Trump get 2 points more than Romney and Clinton get 6 points less than Obama with Trump on the ticket this time? It seems inconceivable — but apparently it happened.
Asian voters went from 3% to 4% of voters and shifted from 73/26 to 65/29. This shift is disappointing, but the Asian numbers are small enough that the overall effect likely was minimal. Other voters went from 2% to 3% of voters and shifted from 58/38 to 56/37 (so not much change among Others).
Dems got excited about the apparent Latino surge. But the expectation that Trump would get less than 20% of the Latino vote was wrong. He got almost 30%. And the Latinos voting third party really hurt. The slight downturn in black turnout was to be expected, but the drop-off from 93 to 88 also really hurt. For some reason, minorities did not vote for Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump in the ratios I expected or, more important, in the amounts she needed to win. I ask again, how did this happen?
The most sickening part of this election for me is that Hillary Clinton apparently will be the winner of the popular vote. Once again the country gets “gored” by our antiquated and anti-democratic electoral system. Eventually, the demographic shifts will overwhelm this problem (I think), but the Republicans are about to do a lot of damage to our country while we wait. It is mourning in America.