Nate Silver at 538 has added an analysis showing how well Hillary and Bernie would be expected to perform in each state (based on relative strength among different demographic groups) for them to be likely to tie in pledged delegates. Interestingly, Bernie could win about 35 states and Hillary only about 15, and they would still be expected to tie in pledged delegates (as her strength happens to be in the larger states). That analysis shows how misleading media is in the way it reports these contest — almost as if each state has the same value (at least in the early contests). But I am never really surprised at the abject incompetence of the new media.
Here is the link to the 538 analaysis: fivethirtyeight.com/…
The analysis shows how Hillary has exceeded her targets for each of the first three states that have voted — and she is ahead of her target in the projection for each state where 538 can make a projection. This analysis shows that Bernie needs to improve his performance dramatically if he wants to have a chance at the nomination. At this pace, the race likely will be effectively over — for all practical purposes — after Super Tuesday (3/1) or March 15th at the latest. Bernie’s time is running out.