As the Bernie story continues to make its long burn through America’s electoral process it is important to see what or who make up his base of support versus Hillary’s. I can state confidentially that base is reflected by both delegations because these 329 persons actually stood up twice for their respective candidates and then volunteered to do it again. In Congressional District 5, (CD5), made up of mostly Colorado Springs, CO (85% of the district) the profile reveals something I suspected before that is quite foreboding, and exciting. If in fact Hillary indeed secures the nomination she will have trouble bringing together a Democratic coalition and/or why if Bernie surprisingly does succeed against all institutional odds in getting the nomination, and possibly why in recent surveys suggest he is the stronger candidate against either of the current Republican Party leaders---it appears to come down to this demographic distribution reflected here in CD5.
In CD5 the Democratic apportionment was originally 305 delegates to El Paso County (plus 38 alternates, which Bernie selected 23 and Hillary selected two). The total of 361 delegates were apportioned to CD5 as a whole, 56 delegates to the outlying high country counties of Fremont, Chaffee, Teller and part of Park County. I am able to peer into El Paso County’s delegation list.
The Bernie Delegation is almost perfectly distributed between men and women 50.23% vs 49.76% where on the other hand Hillary’s is weighted heavily towards women, 72.97% vs 27.02%. (When I brought this up today with a former Dem Party activist and Hillary supporter she said this is a problem, not just politically but socially as well, no pun intended regarding the idea of socialism.) But that is not the only demographic that jumps off the page, age and generation are also demonstrating stark contrasts.
Bernie’s delegation has a pretty equal distribution between 20 and 59 years of age, the largest percentage being 59-50 year old’s, while the second largest is 20-24, but if you add up all Millennials it amounts to 70 in total number or practically a third of Bernie’s CD5 delegation. While Hillary’s delegation is heavily weighted between 69-50 year old’s (61) or 54.95%, where the largest share belongs to Boomers who comprise 61.26% again practically two-thirds of her delegation. Indeed they are close knit.
What does this age and gender divide foretell for Colorado’s Democratic Party make up and possibly other states? New Democrats are exceedingly younger and are also participating in record numbers. I looked at the date of party affiliation for Bernie Delegates (and Alternates) and an even 100 registered as Democrats in the year 2015, 46.08%, 137 since 2012 (63%) and 168 since 2000 (77.41%). (And in some ways why Hillary Volunteer Leaders cried HIJACK days following the caucuses when we had record turnout.) The same review of Hillary’s supporters demonstrated almost the stark opposite. Fifteen of her delegates (13.51%) declared their Democratic affiliation in 2015, 32.43% since 2012 and 48.64% since 2000---meaning more than half of her Democratic delegates were registered during Bill Clinton’s Administration. It is a classic tussle between the old guard and the new upstarts, inside the party’s evolving and changing rank and file. After the County Convention you could hear the discontent from my Hillary friends who stated openly that Bernie delegates were rude and disrespectful towards them. But I didn’t see that, what I saw was their reaction that they were now in the shrinking minority and felt it.
The problem is, as I see it, regardless of the electoral coercion of the election system reduced to a choice of two, this new class of Democrats are not just about electing the best standard bearer from their side, they are seeking to overturn the entire system. Working and talking among them you can see how they are thinking and are not happy about how institutional rules and procedures are stacked against them.
This is your new Democratic Party folks, at least now in Colorado but I see it spreading to many other states as well; Minnesota, Oregon, Washington, Vermont, New Hampshire, Alaska, Hawaii, possibly in Michigan and we shall see in Wisconsin where ever you see young people moving into the state and those who have remained getting franchised. Either way, the Hillary delegation looks a lot like our Republican counterparts here in Colorado Springs, except for gender, it is very white, older and more conservative. Bernie’s delegation has more ethnic minorities between the respective groups though getting an exact count is hard in the database.
Last comment: As Bernie’s campaign seems to have stabilized this weekend with pledged (electoral) delegates 1266 vs 1038 where in Colorado on April 15th and 16th they will hold their CD Assemblies (43) and State Convention (14 at large) where 57 National Delegates will be ultimately officially selected. Currently the projection is 38 to 28 for Bernie/Hillary split as for pledged caucus delegates. But that could change by a total of 3. Depending on the attendance from respective delegation, therefore votes cast in preference from CD delegates the split could change because of threshold to 41-25. In two CD’s (ours is one) and the state the split is very close. Three delegates sounds small but with the current 226 deficit and the potential that Bernie might gain in next two contests to possibly close to less than 200, gains like this in other caucus states like Minnesota, Maine, Nebraska and Kansas could add up to ten or delegates to Bernie’s pledged side and push the number ever closer to critical mass when the super-delegates will really have a decision to make.
In conclusion, I am both heartened by the new wave of voter participation and greatly concerned being a Democratic Party Activist with our old guard’s reaction. Heartened because this new generation is plainly on the side of liberalism. But concerned because they have the numbers to push out old guard centrists who sought to survive the Reagan Revolution and for a time being divide the party. I had old guard folks say I should be concerned so many young people that make up Bernie’s delegation with their traditional perspective of flake out rates, but this is a new generation appears to get it better than us Boomers did, and therefore, I am not worried. I in turn said, you should be concerned that 14% of your delegation is over 70 years old and you are asking them to make certain that they drive up 2 ½ hours on a Friday afternoon through Denver Metro traffic and actively participate in an Assembly scheduled to gavel at 7:15 PM and possibly go to 10-11PM. Then either drive back and return the next morning for the convention, or stay over in a hotel at $200 a night. We just have to pick up 16% to take a national delegate in our CD and even less in the state. It will be interesting to see who shows up.