while all eyes are currently on the UK/EU/Brexit drama, Spain had a general election today.
And that should be noticed herearounds since developments in Spain have been among the relatively few bright spots for the Left, depending on viewpoint. As generally known, podemos has grown there out of an Occupy-like street movement (the indignados). They have formed a serious left wing alternative to center-left, PSOE (socialist by name, social democratic by content in former times, accused to have been coopted into the self-serving corrupt bourgois class). These are very broad brushes of course and will be hotly contested by partisans. In any case, Spain was the posterchild of the financially caused crisis after 2008, bringing the country crushing 25% level unemployment and driving an estimated five hundred thousand of its young generation to seek work in other european countries. (That is the kind of relief that British voters seem to want to make impossible). The crisis has blown up the former duopoly of Spanish partisan politics, both big parties accused of through-and-through corruption. Thus two “new” alternatives have grown, the Ciudadanos (Citizens) on the center-right as a “clean” alternative to the PP and without the old-franco ballast, and the podemos (Yes we can, if I may translate it so) on the left, opposed to what they call neoliberalism or germano-european orthodoxy and led by the charismatic young adonis, Iglesias.
Now they have had elections just last year. That brought them 4 parties of note in parliament, PP, PSOE, C, Podemos (plus a few not insignificant splinters such as basque or catalan groups and IU, hereditary postcommunists).
These four main groups proved unable to form a coalition government between them. So after much posturing they gave up and called a new election. This election happens today.
This is the former representation in seats (of December 2015), to compare results against:
PP 119
Ciudadanos 40
PSOE 89
podemos 65
5 or so other groups in total, 37.
Nominal majority is reached at 176 seats
→ I follow it on El Pais. The current projection is
PP 120 +-3
PSOE 84 ± 3
podemos 91 ± 4
Ciudadanos 29 ± 3
If it holds up, PSOE + podemos = 175 ± 7
So that is dicey !
That would be like a coalition between Clinton and Sanders, in DailyKos terms. You can imagine how that goes. But I just want to put this out for people interested in spanish politics, and european politics, to discuss.
The fate of the podemos should be very closely followed by anyone who dreams of a refounded leftwing policy alternative to current orthodoxy.
Have fun!
Groeten
And be at peace. In Spain, noone would dream of calling the EU in question. They have lots of dirty clothes to wash (see title image), but they are not that stupid.
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Update, 22:00 CET
Grafics, at 50-60% of votes counted, from el pais
This turns the earlier result on its head, leaving PSOE in number 2. It would, if conformed, mean nearly no significant change, but, it would take PSOE+podemos still closer to separate majority.
In the old parliament, these two were just too small for a majority, and podemos had suggested to include several splinters to create a razor thin majority but that was rejected by PSOE; it would not likely have led to a stable government.
In question is if there can be a stable left-side government to break the PP rule and to return to social policy in Spain.
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Update at 90% of votes counted:
PP 136
PSOE 86
podemos (unidos) 71
Ciudadanos 32
This is a tactical win for the PP, a defeat specifically for Iglesias, a tactical win of sorts for Pedro Sanchez, the young new star of the socialists.
Podemos unified for this election with the IU. The PSOE had not been keen on coalition with IU. This way they together hoped to be big enough to be bigger than the PSOE and, well, be in a dominant position to them. Well, this hasnt happened. The unification ith IU has brought podemos only insignificant extra gain. Instead, the PP has gained substantially — the only one of the big parties to do so. This had been the strategy of Rajoy — sit it out, and hope that voters will return to them in quest of stability.
Unluckily, of the two gamblers (Rajoy and Iglesias), the right wing one has pulled it off and the left wing one has not.
The pressure will now mount in the PSOE to support a PP government, in whichever form. This means, in terms of Spanish politics, a continuation of the Ancien Regime, and is exactly not what I had hoped would come out here.
Europe desperately needs an alternative.
Well; it is what it is. But this is a bitter pill for hopes directed towards Spain.