I see a red state and I want to paint it...purple?
According to 538.com’s 2016 presidential election forecast, the 5 most competitive battleground states in the 2016 presidential cycle are currently: Arizona, Missouri, North Carolina, Georgia, South Carolina.
Note that what this means is that the usual battleground states — Florida, Ohio, Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, Nevada — are all LESS competitive in 2016 than the states listed above. Those traditional battleground states are all LESS competitive than South Carolina right now. The “usual” battleground states are all less competitive than South Carolina because Clinton is winning them all by so much.
Wow.
To repeat, and I encourage you to let it sink in: Wow.
2012 RESULTs vs. 538.com averages for 2016
STATE
|
2012 FINAL |
2016 CURRENT (538.com) |
ARIZONA
|
Romney +9% |
Trump +0% |
MISSOURI |
Romney +9% |
Trump +2% |
North Carolina |
Romney +4% |
Clinton +2% |
GEORGIA |
Romney +8% |
Trump +2% |
SOUTH CAROLINA |
Romney +10% |
Trump +3% |
Reminder: none of these states are remotely necessarily for victory in November. We’re discussing icing on the cake, right now.
Now, do I expect these margins to hold — or get better? Who knows! I doubt Trump’s convention is going to result in much of a bounce, I think it may result in the opposite. But it’s early yet, and early July is still sort of a silly season for general election polling.
And certainly there will be a difference between the “Clinton vs. Trump” margin and overall “Democrat vs. Republican” state/local contest margins. Trump is less popular than the GOP is, generally. But the GOP is NOT popular to start with, and Trump is a massive political sinkhole, so he may drag down turnout and margins for the Republicans generally.
But regardless of what the coming months bring (and I’m a pessimist who thinks that we may see some return to the mean rather soon), right now Clinton should look to these new battleground states for opportunities to:
- Campaign directly for herself;
- Force the GOP to spend money/time defending (formerly?) “red” states, and;
- Support down-ballot candidates who might otherwise lose close races in “red” districts/states.
It’s great to win the White House, but how much better to win it along with more Congressional and state-level support than you expected? The above numbers are what a potential wave election is made of — not just in DC but across the country.
So everyone still needs to keep an eye on the “usual” swing states suspects: OH, VA, FL, PA, NH...but overall Trump is losing those places just fine on his own. So capitalize on a nascent wave election and go on offense elsewhere to paint some red states purple, from top to bottom.
Don’t get complacent.
Do get aggressive.