Here are some ideas:
1) We need to kill the “accomplishments win elections” narrative. The biggest factor driving this bill is a sense of Republican teamwork. The conventional wisdom that passing this legislation will save Republicans at midterms is repeated over and over again. I watched Rick Santorum hammer this message at every opportunity while covering the Virginia election night.
This narrative is not based on any evidence. Legislators are rarely rewarded for passing major legislation (see Obamacare). This bill is not especially popular and is confusing for most people. Do they really expect a groundswell of grassroots support for passing this thing?
Democrats need to attack the “accomplishments=votes” meme at every opportunity. We need to challenge journalists whenever they repeat this garbage. Some polling would help too. One poll done by Morning Consult showed a modest increase in support for the tax bill when the bill was explained to voters with a Republican framing. Imagine what we could achieve with a more realistic framing of the effects of the bill. I’m imagining polling a blue state Republican district, explaining the effects of this bill on their taxes and seeing how it would affect voting. A couple of well placed polls could crush Republican unity.
2) Slow down this process. The Pelosi/Schumer/Trump deal in September was a short term win for Democrats, but it nearly resulted in Graham-Cassidy. Without the relatively calm political environment, nobody would have had the time of day for zombie healthcare. Democrats could have quite possibly allowed several weeks of unpopular, self-destructive Republican infighting and then gotten the same deal later. Democrats should make sky high demands for cooperation in December. They should also demand proper hearings for this bill as a price for cooperation. The slower this process goes, the more likely things will go wrong. Cancelling today’s meeting was a good first step.
3) Frame the issue on favorable terms. Republicans are great at winning the framing fight. Republican politicians don’t care what Democrats think. A lot of negative headlines about this bill have focused on how the bill screws over the poor. I’m not sure Republican voters care that much. If we can frame the issue in a way that pisses off Republican voters, it will create much bigger problems for this bill.
People fundamentally understand that there’s no such thing as a free lunch. These tax cuts will need to be paid for with 1.5 trillion dollars in spending cuts. 20% of the budget is mandatory spending (interest payments, etc). Here is what a 1.5 trillion dollar cut would look like divided up equally based on current federal budget percentages (over 10 years):
$300 billion from defense
$470 billion from healthcare including $280 billion from Medicare
$450 billion from social security
$280 billion from everything else
Republicans will say that they won’t touch social security or defense, so that will leave only 40% of the budget. That would mean a $940 billion cut from healthcare including $565 billion from medicare. That’s over $10,000 from each medicare recipient.
1.5 trillion dollars is 1.5 million dollars for every job this bill is supposedly creating.
1.5 trillion dollars is about $15,000 for every household that pays income tax.
Does anyone really believe that this gift to Republican donors is worth a new car?