There has been a lot of punditry claiming that a Roy Moore win would have been somehow better than a loss for Democrats. I don’t know how many times I heard some CNN pundit say that Mitch McConnell would be breathing a sigh of relief if Doug Jones won. This is an example of the pundit class trying to be too clever. A Doug Jones win is vastly better for Democrats than a Roy Moore win. Here’s why:
1) The Senate seat matters A LOT. Mike Pence has already broken 6 Senate ties in his short time as Vice President. He is right now on pace to break 27 ties over his four year term. Many of his votes have been important. Among other things, he allowed Betsy Devos to be confirmed, paved the way for states to defund Planned Parenthood and gutted the Consumer Protection Agency. One vote in the Senate will make a big difference over the next three years.
2) This seat probably doubles the chances that the Democrats retake the Senate in 2018. Some pundits think that as long as Democrats have the house, they don’t need the Senate as they will be able to stall the Republican agenda. This is wrong. Control of the Senate is very important. With control of the Senate, Democrats can completely stall Trump’s judicial nominees. Even more important, there is a reasonable chance of a Supreme Court vacancy between 2019 and 2020. Democrats could (and should) potentially hold any seat open for a full two years.
3) The narrative today is MUCH better. If Doug Jones had lost, we would have endured a whole lot of “how can the Democrats not even beat an accused pedophile?”. We would have had a whole lot of Democratic hand wringing and “Democrats in disarray” stories even though coming close in Alabama would have been an achievement.
4) Donald Trump is weakened. He gambled and lost on this one.
5) This loss hurts Republican unity a great deal. Steve Bannon is not the kind of guy who will admit defeat and give up. He’s already blaming the Republican establishment for losing the election. He’s probably right. If Moore had more money and there was no write-in campaign against him, he probably would have won. Plus, Moore refuses to concede which will add to the fun.
6) Democratic enthusiasm is way up. They finally won a major national race. Recruiting will be even easier and conversely, there will be even more Republican retirements.
But, but, but… Mitch McConnell would have had a sad if Moore won because he might have had to expel Moore. We all know how much process matters to Republican voters. Just look what happened to them when they broke with decades of Senate tradition and held a Supreme Court seat open for a year. Even Chuck Grassley’s safe seat was in trouble! Oh wait…
My gut tells me that Republicans would have held relatively quick ethics hearings, been “deeply troubled” by Moore’s behavior, but there just wouldn’t be enough proof to expel him. Several (but less than the 19 required) Repuplican senators would get to vote “their conscience” and would vote to expel. In exchange, Moore would (behind closed doors) agree to lay low and be a good Republican.
Or, they would expel him. It wouldn’t really hurt Republicans outside of Alabama. By the end of the hearings, Fox News (as instructed) would have completely and utterly destroyed Moore.