The thesis of this post: Obama had some actual success curbing Assad’s use of chemical weapons. Trump made things worse.
This is not about the morality or the legality of anything Obama or Trump did, or might have done. Just: effectiveness.
And this is not about whether it matters that Assad is slaughtering his citizens as effectively with conventional weapons as with chemical. It is about the issue du jour, chemical weapons specifically: That Trump (i) was allegedly moved to strike because chemical weapons were used to kill beautiful babies, and (ii) has regularly derided Obama for declaring chemical weapons off limits, then wimping out.
The fact is, for all Obama has taken crap about declaring red lines over WMD and then not following through, Obama actually achieved some success in that goal. He worked a deal with Putin where Putin guarantied Assad’s WMD would be destroyed. And while, of course, we now know that not all the WMD were destroyed, nonetheless: from 2013 til President Trump, there were no more chemical weapons attacks.**
So let’s compare Trump’s record on this issue, on the specific goal of curbing Assad’s use of chemical weapons.
As soon as Tillerson shot off his mouth about leaving Assad’s fate up to the Syrian people, together with the common knowledge that Trump is Putin’s bitch, Assad knew there was a new sheriff in town, and he was a pushover. Assad tested the new sheriff. Trump responded with a military gesture equivalent to a sternly worded letter. Assad promptly sneered and upped the ante, launching an attack from the targeted air field the very next day, and then going on to launch a second chemical weapons attack. Russia too promptly gave Trump the middle finger, denying that chemical weapons had been used.
[And by the way, where is Trump going to find the moral high ground to call out Russia for denying the reality of what is taking place in Syria, when bald-faced lies are Trump’s stock-in-trade?]
So here we are. Assad tested our new president, and laughed at our show of force. The ball is now back in Trump’s court. What does Trump do now?
Gee, Donald, did you think this one through? You can’t strongarm Putin, you’re Putin’s bitch, you care far more about the coming oil deal with Russia than Syria’s beautiful babies. And I highly doubt even you are stupid enough to launch WWIII over Syria. The economic sanctions are all the nonlethal leverage we have, that’s probably how Obama got his diplomatic solution with Putin. And we all know, in Trump/Tillerson’s foreign policy, with the oil deal and god knows what all else Trump owes Putin, lifting sanctions is a foregoing conclusion.
The end result is, we’re far worse off than if Trump had done nothing. You don’t make ultimatums if you aren’t prepared to follow through. (Does no one remember Viet Nam? How that destroyed the image of American invincibility?)
So really, how absolutely fucking galling is it, that the conventional wisdom is “Obama wimped out on Assad’s WMD” and “Trump was decisive and manly”?
If anyone is really keeping an accurate score, it is Obama 1, Trump -1.
**Disclosure: My source for the history of Obama’s small but real success on Assad’s WMDs is Rachel Maddow. Forgive me, I’m not in a position to research it myself. I trust Rachel’s scholarship and honesty. Forgive me particularly if I misheard Rachel.