Iowa used to be a pretty liberal state, represented by the likes of Harold Hughes, John Culver and Tom Harkin. It also used to be a pretty reliable vote for Democratic Presidents.
A red tide began rolling in in 2010, when Branstad took the State House. By 2018 Dems were down to one Dem in the House (they had 3 in 2010) and none in the Senate and, as we all know and are sickened of hearing again, Drumpf won by a full 10% in 2016.
Things were starting to look more like Arkansas (which used to be a Dem stronghold too...) than Iowa. Well, times just may be a changin in IA.
First there’s this:
By Monday, 215,663 absentee ballots had been received from registered Democrats, 13 percent more than their total for 2014. The Secretary of State's office reported 175,954 absentee ballots had been received from Republicans by Monday, 3 percent fewer than their 2014 total.
www.desmoinesregister.com/...
Remember that ALL early voting is by absentee ballot in IA.
Now let’s take a look at those absentee ballots that have been returned in 3 IA Districts:
United States Representative District 1
Received: Democrat No Party Republican
55,089 32,972 38,123
United States Representative District 2
Received: Democrat No Party Republican
62,497 27,082 42,024
United States Representative District 3
Received: Democrat No Party Republican
58,771 24,540 45,598
sos.iowa.gov/…
It’s true that this represents only 40% of the expected total vote in each of these CDs, according to 538’s website. Still, that means that in Axne’s district, for example (IA3), which is supposed to be a razor-tight race, her opponent will need to run 8% better on Election Day, assuming Indies break even. Possible but a tough path.
Compare this with 2014, when Dems ran neck and neck with Republicans in the Early Vote (2% ahead)
They’re crushing them this year by 8%.
www.electproject.org/...
There are many factors we still don’t know. Have Dems “shot their wad” this time around? Will we be inundated with rural Republicans showing driving their John Deere’s to their polling places tomorrow? or will Indies be feeling Trumpy (God forbid)). Still, all things considered I’d rather be a Dem in the Cornhusker state than a ‘Pub.