Welcome to the October 2019 edition of BeloitDem’s congressional race ratings! All seats not listed in the table below are considered safe for the party that currently holds them. Bolded seats are currently held by Republicans, while italicized ones are currently held by Democrats. Explanations for my rating changes are below the fold. As always, feel free to quibble (but please don’t litigate the Dem Presidential primary though the guise of which candidates you think would do better in which states, that’s not what this diary is about).
ELECTORAL COLLEGE
Likely d |
lean D |
tossup |
lean r |
likely R |
CO
ME
MN
NV
VA
|
PA
MI
NH
|
AZ
FL
NC
ME-02
NE-02
WI
|
GA
IA
|
OH
TX
NE-01
|
GOVERNORS
Likely D |
Lean D |
Tossup |
Lean R |
Likely R |
DE-GOV
WA-GOV
|
NC-GOV |
LA-GOV
|
KY-GOV
MT-GOV
NH-GOV
|
MO-GOV
MS-GOV
VT-GOV
|
SENATE
likely d |
lean d |
tossup |
lean r |
likely r |
MI-SEN
MN-SEN
NH-SEN
NM-SEN
VA-SEN
|
CO-SEN |
AZ-SEN
ME-SEN
NC-SEN
|
GA-SEN A
GA-SEN-B
IA-SEN
|
AK-SEN
AL-SEN
MT-SEN
TX-SEN
|
HOUSE
likely d |
lean d |
tossup |
lean r |
likely r |
AZ-2
CA-7
CA-21
CA-25
CA-49
CO-6
CT-5
FL-7
FL-27
FL-13
IL-6
MN-3
NH-1
NJ-2
NJ-5
NV-4
OR-4
PA-6
PA-17
PA-8
VA-10
WI-3
|
AZ-1
CA-10
CA-39
CA-45
CA-48
FL-26
IA-1
IA-2
IA-3
IL-14
KS-3
MI-11
MI-8
MN-2
NY-11
NJ-11
NV-3
NY-19
PA-7
TX-7
TX-23
TX-32
VA-2
WA-8
|
AZ-6
GA-6 (Tilt D)
GA-7
ME-2
NE-2
NJ-3 (Tilt D)
NJ-7
NM-2
NY-22
OK-5
PA-1
SC-1
TX-24
UT-4 (Tilt D)
VA-7
|
CA-50
IL-13
MI-3
MI-6
MN-7
MO-2
NC-13
NY-24
PA-10
TX-10
TX-21
TX-22
WA-3
|
AK-AL
CA-22
CO-3
FL-15
FL-16
FL-18
FL-25
IA-4
IN-5
IL-12
KS-2
KY-6
MI-7
MN-1
MN-8
MT-AL
NC-2
NC-9
NY-1
NY-2
NY-27
OH-1
OH-10
OH-12
OH-14
PA-16
TX-2
TX-31
VA-5
WI-1
WI-6
WI-7
WI-8
|
Likely D to Safe D:
NJ-SEN: Not really any specific event as much as the fact that this was already a bit of a stretch as “likely.”
Lean D to Likely D:
AZ-2: Honestly I I think I mostly had this seat in the Leans Column as a holdover from last year when it was an open Republican seat. Considering the trends, Kirkpatrick is unlikely to have much trouble here as an incumbent.
Tossup to Likely R:
NC-09: Trump is almost certainly winning this district, our chances of taking it without an incumbent are… not good.
Lean R to Likely R:
NY-27: With Collins out, this in all likelyhood won’t be competitive.
Safe R to Likely R:
WI-7: Moved here because of the Duffy resignation and the special election. Still a really tough district these days, though.