Welcome to the November 2019 edition of BeloitDem’s congressional race ratings! All seats not listed in the table below are considered safe for the party that currently holds them, except for NC-6*, which is rated safe Democratic pickup. Bolded seats are currently held by Republicans, while italicized ones are currently held by Democrats. Explanations for my rating changes are below the fold. As always, feel free to quibble (but please don’t litigate the Dem Presidential primary though the guise of which candidates you think would do better in which states, that’s not what this diary is about).
ELECTORAL COLLEGE
Likely d |
lean D |
tossup |
lean r |
likely R |
CO
ME
MN
NV
VA
|
PA
MI
NH
|
AZ
FL
NC
ME-02
NE-02
WI
|
GA
IA
|
OH
TX
NE-01
|
GOVERNORS
Likely D |
Lean D |
Tossup |
Lean R |
Likely R |
DE-GOV
WA-GOV
|
NC-GOV |
LA-GOV
|
KY-GOV
MT-GOV
NH-GOV
|
MO-GOV
MS-GOV
VT-GOV
|
SENATE
likely d |
lean d |
tossup |
lean r |
likely r |
MI-SEN
MN-SEN
NH-SEN
NM-SEN
VA-SEN
|
CO-SEN |
AZ-SEN
ME-SEN
NC-SEN
|
GA-SEN A
GA-SEN-B
IA-SEN
|
AK-SEN
AL-SEN
KS-SEN
MT-SEN
TX-SEN
|
HOUSE
likely d |
lean d |
tossup |
lean r |
likely r |
AZ-2
CA-7
CA-21
CA-45
CA-49
CO-6
CT-5
FL-7
FL-27
FL-13
IL-6
MN-3
NH-1
NJ-2
NJ-5
NV-4
OR-4
PA-6
PA-17
PA-8
VA-10
WI-3
|
AZ-1
CA-10
CA-25
CA-39
CA-48
FL-26
IA-1
IA-2
IA-3
IL-14
KS-3
MI-11
MI-8
MN-2
NC-13*
NJ-11
NV-3
NY-19
PA-7
TX-7
TX-23
TX-32
VA-2
WA-8
|
AZ-6
GA-6 (Tilt D)
GA-7
ME-2
NE-2
NJ-3 (Tilt D)
NJ-7
NM-2
NY-11 (Tilt D)
NY-22
OK-5
PA-1
SC-1
TX-24
UT-4 (Tilt D)
VA-7
|
CA-50
IL-13
MI-3
MI-6
MN-7
MO-2
NY-24
PA-10
TX-10
TX-21
TX-22
WA-3
|
AK-AL
CA-22
CO-3
FL-15
FL-16
FL-18
FL-25
IA-4
IN-5
IL-12
KS-2
KY-6
MI-7
MN-1
MN-8
MT-AL
NC-2*
NY-1
NY-2
NY-27
OH-1
OH-10
OH-12
OH-14
PA-16
TX-2
TX-31
VA-5
WI-1
WI-6
WI-7
WI-8
|
Programing Note (NC-HOUSE): North Carolina’s Congressional map is almost certainly in the process of being struck down as an illegal partisan gerrymander under the North Carolina Constitution. While the exact configuration of of the districts is to be determined, I can project with reasonable confidence that there will be a new safely Democratic district containing Chapel Hill and probably Durham that I’ll refer to as NC-6* and District based around Greensboro that could be anywhere from tossup to solidly Democratic I’ll refer to as NC-13*. I also think there will most probably be a Republican-leaning but winnable district around Fayetteville that I’ll refer to as NC-2*. If the actually districts wind up with different numbers, I’ll renumber them, but this gives a more accurate picture of the House battleground than pretending old districts which the state is already enjoined from using will be in place come November 2020.
Likely D to Lean D:
CA-25: Democrats seem to have more or less cleared the field for a stong candidate, and the district is trending our way. We should be fine.
Leans D to Likely D:
CA-45: Katie Porter has made quite a name for herself asking tough questions in Congress, and the district is trending blue rapidly.
Lean D to Tossup / Tilt D:
NY-11: Moving it all the way to lean D on my part was probably an overreaction, but I maintain that both of Rose’s potential opponents are pretty darn unimpressive.
Safe R to Likely R:
KS-SEN: Mostly here because there’s a reasonable chance Kris Kobach gets the nomination.