Welcome to the December 2019 edition of BeloitDem’s congressional race ratings! All seats not listed in the table below are considered safe for the party that currently holds them, except for NC-2 and NC-6, which are rated safe Democratic pickup. Bolded seats are currently held by Republicans, while italicized ones are currently held by Democrats. Explanations for my rating changes are below the fold. As always, feel free to quibble (but please don’t litigate the Dem Presidential primary though the guise of which candidates you think would do better in which states, that’s not what this diary is about).
ELECTORAL COLLEGE
Likely d |
lean D |
tossup |
lean r |
likely R |
CO
ME
NV
VA
|
PA
MI
MN
NH
|
AZ
FL
NC
ME-02
NE-02
WI
|
GA
IA
|
OH
TX
NE-01
|
GOVERNORS
Likely D |
Lean D |
Tossup |
Lean R |
Likely R |
|
NC-GOV |
|
MT-GOV
NH-GOV
|
MO-GOV
VT-GOV
|
SENATE
likely d |
lean d |
tossup |
lean r |
likely r |
MI-SEN
MN-SEN
NH-SEN
VA-SEN
|
CO-SEN |
AZ-SEN
ME-SEN
NC-SEN
|
GA-SEN A
GA-SEN-B
IA-SEN
|
AK-SEN
AL-SEN
KS-SEN
MT-SEN
TX-SEN
|
HOUSE
likely d |
lean d |
tossup |
lean r |
likely r |
AZ-2
CA-7
CA-21
CA-45
CA-49
CO-6
CT-5
FL-7
FL-27
FL-13
IL-6
MN-3
NH-1
NJ-5
NV-4
OR-4
PA-6
PA-17
PA-8
VA-10
WI-3
|
AZ-1
CA-10
CA-25
CA-39
CA-48
FL-26
GA-6
IA-1
IA-2
IA-3
IL-14
KS-3
MI-11
MI-8
MN-2
NJ-7
NJ-2
NJ-11
NV-3
NY-19
PA-7
TX-7
TX-23
TX-32
VA-2
WA-8
|
AZ-6
GA-7
ME-2
MO-2 (Tilt R)
NE-2
NJ-3 (Tilt D)
NM-2
NY-11 (Tilt D)
NY-22
OK-5
PA-1
SC-1
TX-24
UT-4 (Tilt D)
VA-7
|
CA-50
IL-13
MI-3
MI-6
MN-7
NY-2
NY-24
PA-10
TX-10
TX-21
TX-22
WA-3
|
AK-AL
CA-22
CO-3
FL-15
FL-16
FL-18
FL-25
IA-4
IN-5
IL-12
KS-2
KY-6
MI-7
MN-1
MN-8
MT-AL
NC-8
NY-1
NY-21
NY-27
OH-1
OH-10
OH-12
OH-14
PA-16
TX-2
TX-31
VA-5
WI-1
WI-6
WI-7
WI-8
|
Programing Note (NC-HOUSE): The North Carolina Legislature passed a remedial Congressional map aiming to head off a legal challenge to their Congressional Gerrymander. the map gives us safe pickups in Greensboro / Winston-Salem (NC-6) and Wake County (NC-2) The district they drew containing Fayetteville unites Cumberland County but throws it into the 8th district with some blood red turf outside of Charlotte, resulting in a Likely R district. The map is still a gerrymander and the plaintiffs in the redistricting case are still challenging it. For the time being, I’m rating under the assumption that the remedial map stands, but there’s a realistic if not great chance we wind up with a more winable district in the Sandhills than the NC-8 on this map.
Likley D to Safe D:
DE-GOV: I had this at likely D in case something weird happened, but Carney still doesn’t have a serious challenger.
WA-GOV: Same as above, plus Inslee is now running for reelection.
NM-SEN: I moved this here when the seat became open mostly in case something weird happened. It hasn’t.
Likely D to Lean D:
MN-Pres: I still think Trump is substantially less likely to win Minnesota than the other upper Midwest states, but it didn’t really belong with the other states I had rated Likely D, and is probably more likely to flip than New Hampshire.
NJ-2: Likely D was always a little bit aggressive for this seat. Still, considering what a dick JVD’s been in Congress, I’m not sure how much I care.
Tossup to Lean D:
GA-6: I had this at “tossup / tilt” since my initial ratings a year ago based on the close race and Trump winning the district, but I don’t think you can make a serious case anymore that the Democratic Presidential nominee won’t win GA-6 next year.
NJ-7: Mostly because I think the district will trend D a bit on the top of the ballot, because suburbs.
Lean R to Tossup / Tilt R:
MO-2: We got a star candidate here, and I’d still put Wagner at like a 30% chance to retire.
Likely R to Lean R:
NY-2: Peter King’s retirement helps us some, but it’s still a Trump +9 district.
Safe R to Likely R:
NY-21: This one has always been borderline arguable, but what made me put it on the board was Stefanik’s opponent raising a boatload of money. Still a very tough district for us to win, though.