Chris Cillizza, writes in CNN that Allan Lichtman has a model that has correctly predicted the last nine presidential elections— all the way back to 1984. His model consists of 13 true or false questions.
"Trump wins again in 2020 unless six of 13 key factors turn against him. I have no final verdict yet because much could change during the next year. Currently, the President is down only three keys: Republican losses in the midterm elections, the lack of a foreign policy success, and the president's limited appeal to voters."
Yikes, this is unsettling. I’m so immersed in accounts of Trump’s criminal and other outrageous transgressions I’ve been assuming we are likely to win 2020.
Lichtman's prediction system is based on 13 true/false statements about the party that holds the White House. If six or more of the statement are false, the incumbent loses. If less than six are false, the incumbent wins. Simple!
1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the US House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
2 Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
Lichtman believes Democrats may have to impeach in order for our candidate to win the 2020 presidential election.
"Democrats are fundamentally wrong about the politics of impeachment and their prospects for victory in 2020. An impeachment and subsequent trial would cost the president a crucial fourth key -- the scandal key -- just as it cost Democrats that key in 2000. The indictment and trial would also expose him to dropping another key by encouraging a serious challenge to his re-nomination. Other potential negative keys include the emergence of a charismatic Democratic challenger, a significant third-party challenge, a foreign policy disaster, or an election-year recession. Without impeachment, however, Democratic prospects are grim."
Winning this election is too vital to take chances. We need to establish that Trump’s transgressions are sufficiently serious to at least open an impeachment hearing.
If the House votes to impeach but the Senate refuses to remove we have a double scandal because the voters will know the Senate GOP’s partisanship is to blame.
If the House Democrats refuse to even open an impeachment hearing then we will be to blame and will give up the issues of the scandal, accountability, and rule of law.
If we then try to assert, “Trump is guilty but we decided not to impeach for political reasons,” we will be admitting our representatives did not uphold their oaths of office for political reasons.
Voters may be disgusted and conclude we are unworthy of office.