Welcome to the August 2019 edition of BeloitDem’s congressional race ratings! All seats not listed in the table below are considered safe for the party that currently holds them. Bolded seats are currently held by Republicans, while italicized ones are currently held by Democrats. Explanations for my rating changes are below the fold. As always, feel free to quibble (but please don’t litigate the Dem Presidential primary though the guise of which candidates you think would do better in which states, that’s not what this diary is about).
ELECTORAL COLLEGE
Likely d |
lean D |
tossup |
lean r |
likely R |
CO
ME
MN
NV
VA
|
PA
MI
NH
|
AZ
FL
NC
ME-02
NE-02
WI
|
GA
IA
|
OH
TX
NE-01
|
GOVERNORS
Likely D |
Lean D |
Tossup |
Lean R |
Likely R |
DE-GOV
WA-GOV
|
NC-GOV |
LA-GOV
|
KY-GOV
MT-GOV
NH-GOV
|
MO-GOV
MS-GOV
VT-GOV
|
SENATE
likely d |
lean d |
tossup |
lean r |
likely r |
MI-SEN
MN-SEN
NH-SEN
NM-SEN
NJ-SEN
VA-SEN
|
CO-SEN |
AZ-SEN
ME-SEN
NC-SEN
|
GA-SEN
IA-SEN
|
AK-SEN
AL-SEN
MT-SEN
TX-SEN
|
HOUSE
likely d |
lean d |
tossup |
lean r |
likely r |
CA-7
CA-21
CA-25
CA-49
CO-6
CT-5
FL-7
FL-27
FL-13
IL-6
MN-3
NH-1
NJ-2
NJ-5
NV-4
PA-6
PA-17
PA-8
VA-10
WI-3
|
AZ-1
AZ-2
CA-10
CA-39
CA-45
CA-48
FL-26
IA-1
IA-2
IA-3
IL-14
KS-3
MI-11
MI-8
MN-2
NY-11
NJ-11
NV-3
NY-19
PA-7
TX-7
TX-32
VA-2
WA-8
|
AZ-6
GA-6 (Tilt D)
GA-7
ME-2
MN-7
NC-9*
NE-2
NJ-3 (Tilt D)
NJ-7
NM-2
NY-22
OK-5
PA-1
SC-1
TX-23
UT-4 (Tilt D)
VA-7
|
CA-50
IL-13
MI-3
MI-6
NC-13
NY-24
NY-27
PA-10
TX-10
TX-21
TX-22
TX-24
WA-3
|
AK-AL
CA-22
CO-3
FL-15
FL-16
FL-18
FL-25
IA-4
IN-5
IL-12
KS-2
KY-6
MI-7
MN-1
MN-8
MO-2
MT-AL
NC-2
NY-1
NY-2
OH-1
OH-10
OH-12
OH-14
PA-16
TX-2
TX-31
VA-5
WI-1
WI-6
WI-8
|
Leans D to Likely D:
IL-6: Trump will in all likelyhood be losing this district by mid to high single digits, I don’t really see how the Republican nominee for Congress pulls this out, especially since it’s looking like that person will probably be Jeanne Ives.
Leans R to Tossup:
AZ-6: Sweikert’s campaign is a hot mess that is spending more on lawyers dealing with his ethics issues than it is bringing in in fundraising and he barely has any cash on hand.
ME-SEN: I smell blood in the water here. I keep changing my mind on this one, but especially now that we’ve seen multiple polls showing Collins with shitty approval ratings I think this is appropriate. I know some of those disapprovers are Trumpists who think she isn’t Trumpy enough, but she has numbers we can work with with Dems and indies and some of the Trumpists will undervote the Senate Race.
Likely R to Leans R:
MI-3: Mostly because of the volitility of the situation with Amash and because Dems got a good candidate here.
TX-21: Chip Roy wasted no time making an ass of himself after getting to Washington, having, among other things, held up disaster relief for his own state over procedural stuff nobody cares about. Ultimately I think he’s still favored because I don’t think the district is quite “there” yet, but I was surprised at how quickly Texas moved last year.
TX-22: Moved because of Pete Olson’s retirement. Definitely ups our odds but considering Ted Cruz won the district I think all the people moving it to Tossup or Leans D are being overly optimistic.