Welcome to the September 2019 edition of BeloitDem’s congressional race ratings! All seats not listed in the table below are considered safe for the party that currently holds them. Bolded seats are currently held by Republicans, while italicized ones are currently held by Democrats. Explanations for my rating changes are below the fold. As always, feel free to quibble (but please don’t litigate the Dem Presidential primary though the guise of which candidates you think would do better in which states, that’s not what this diary is about).
ELECTORAL COLLEGE
Likely d |
lean D |
tossup |
lean r |
likely R |
CO
ME
MN
NV
VA
|
PA
MI
NH
|
AZ
FL
NC
ME-02
NE-02
WI
|
GA
IA
|
OH
TX
NE-01
|
GOVERNORS
Likely D |
Lean D |
Tossup |
Lean R |
Likely R |
DE-GOV
WA-GOV
|
NC-GOV |
LA-GOV
|
KY-GOV
MT-GOV
NH-GOV
|
MO-GOV
MS-GOV
VT-GOV
|
SENATE
likely d |
lean d |
tossup |
lean r |
likely r |
MI-SEN
MN-SEN
NH-SEN
NM-SEN
NJ-SEN
VA-SEN
|
CO-SEN |
AZ-SEN
ME-SEN
NC-SEN
|
GA-SEN A
GA-SEN-B
IA-SEN
|
AK-SEN
AL-SEN
MT-SEN
TX-SEN
|
HOUSE
likely d |
lean d |
tossup |
lean r |
likely r |
CA-7
CA-21
CA-25
CA-49
CO-6
CT-5
FL-7
FL-27
FL-13
IL-6
MN-3
NH-1
NJ-2
NJ-5
NV-4
OR-4
PA-6
PA-17
PA-8
VA-10
WI-3
|
AZ-1
AZ-2
CA-10
CA-39
CA-45
CA-48
FL-26
IA-1
IA-2
IA-3
IL-14
KS-3
MI-11
MI-8
MN-2
NY-11
NJ-11
NV-3
NY-19
PA-7
TX-7
TX-23
TX-32
VA-2
WA-8
|
AZ-6
GA-6 (Tilt D)
GA-7
ME-2
NC-9*
NE-2
NJ-3 (Tilt D)
NJ-7
NM-2
NY-22
OK-5
PA-1
SC-1
TX-24
UT-4 (Tilt D)
VA-7
|
CA-50
IL-13
MI-3
MI-6
MN-7
MO-2
NC-13
NY-24
NY-27
PA-10
TX-10
TX-21
TX-22
WA-3
|
AK-AL
CA-22
CO-3
FL-15
FL-16
FL-18
FL-25
IA-4
IN-5
IL-12
KS-2
KY-6
MI-7
MN-1
MN-8
MT-AL
NC-2
NY-1
NY-2
OH-1
OH-10
OH-12
OH-14
PA-16
TX-2
TX-31
VA-5
WI-1
WI-6
WI-8
|
Safe D to Likely D:
OR-4: Hilary barely won the district and Republicans just landed a credible candidate.
Tossup to Leans D:
TX-23: Hurd retirement.
Lean R to Tossup:
TX-24: Marchant retirement.
Tossup to Lean R: Peterson just got a strong opponent and he barely held on against nobodies the last two cycles. His odds don’t exactly look great.
Likely R to Lean R:
MO-2: Ok, I’m convinced. It’s a McCaskill district where we came close last time and the incumbent stands a good chance of retiring.
Safe R to Lean R:
GA-SEN B: New race due to the Ikason resignation, figure it tracks pretty closely to the Presidential race.