Looks like Biden will prevail in GA, NV, and PA. However I’ve been worried about AZ for a whole day because Trump seemed to be hitting his markers for the glide path that could take him past Joe. We want every single electoral vote we can get to gain a mandate to return this country to some measure of sanity.
Some good news early this morning out of AZ!
Some overnight ballot processing has been going on and the latest batch released actually INCREASED Biden’s lead to around 47,000. Here’s the quote from ABC news:
Biden's lead in Arizona increased by 795 votes overnight, as the longtime Republican stronghold edges toward flipping blue.
As of 4:50 a.m. Friday, Biden has 1,532,062 votes -- 50.1% -- while Trump has 1,485,010 votes -- 48.5% -- with 90% of the expected vote reporting statewide. That's a difference of 47,052 votes.
About 263,000 ballots are left to be counted in the Grand Canyon State….
-ABC News' Kendall Karson and Chad Murray
Unlike PA, where the remaining landscape is hostile to Trump, even, it turns out, in some pretty Trumpy counties, almost all remaining ballots in AZ are in Maricopa, which, thus far, has gone for Biden by a modest margin. I’ll let Nate Silver explain:
This is potentially interesting in Arizona. What we saw reported earlier tonight in Maricopa Co. were ballots that arrived by mail in the couple of days before the election. Those were quite good for Trump.
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Replying to @Garrett_Archer
Based on my saved early vote files, the final 150-200k, which are ED dropoffs, will be much more independent. This next batch should be similar to the first batch.10/29 to 11/02: D25/R45/O3011/02 to 11/04: D26/R36/O36
But there's also a batch of outstanding ballots that were *dropped off* on Election Day, instead arriving by mail. Those may be less GOP, which would make it harder for Trump to reach the numbers he needs.
So the remaining Maricopa ballots may be far less Repubican, preventing Drumpf from achieving the 58%–59% advantage he needs to overtake Joe. So far so good.