This post is for fellow Dems who fear Bernie can’t win, and wish to use their primary votes to nominate an electable moderate. It is not to argue about Bernie’s electability.
I’m a Super Tuesday voter, I have barely a week left to figure this out. All thoughts, and corrections to my math or assumptions, are welcome.
The 15% Rule
Under the rules of most (maybe all, I haven’t researched) primaries, a candidate needs to get at least 15% in either a sub-set of voters (usually, a congressional district) or statewide in order to win delegates.
So right off, that means a vote for a candidate who can’t surmount that threshold is wasted.
For a while, I’ve been cautiously optimistic that, with polls for the moderate candidates collectively outnumbering Bernie (and Bernie plus Warren), the nomination will come down to a brokered convention, with a frontrunning moderate winning on the second ballot. (Also, that the ballot that produces the winner will garner a majority of the pledged delegates, so we don’t have a fight over super-delegate-rigging.)
Now I realize that the 15% rule also gives Bernie a shot at winning a majority of the delegates outright, even if he does not win a majority of the votes. Say there are 100 delegates at stake, Bernie gets 40% of the votes, one moderate gets 20%, another gets 15%, and the rest of the moderates collectively get 16% but don’t individually surmount the 15% threshold. Even though moderate votes outnumber Bernie’s, and add up to 51%, in actual delegates, Bernie gets 40 divided by 75 (the viable denominator)--a majority.
If I’m wrong on this, someone please correct me asap. I wake up nights screaming, thinking of what Trump will do to the world with four years and zero restraints.
Biden
Spoiler alert, my choice is Biden. I base that on him polling best against Trump in the three states that matter, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. I only recently realized that Trump need only hold on to Wisconsin and the rest of the states he won, and he wins again—and Trump so far beats all of our candidates in Wisconsin, outside the margin of error. Have I mentioned the waking up screaming part?
Biden is far from my top choice to be president, no need to explain the ins and outs of that. I am at the point of voting purely out of abject fear.
Of course, it is best all around for a single moderate to emerge quickly, both for the momentum and the competition for funding.
Having said, a vote for a moderate who can get over that magic 15% threshold is still a reasonable choice, on the assumption the moderates’ delegates coalesce around a viable not-Bernie in a brokered convention. So:
Buttigieg
We’ll see how he does in South Carolina. Of course, you also want to know how well he’s polling in your particular state, and make a best guess how well he’ll do in your congressional district.
But, I don’t think Buttigieg can beat Trump (doesn’t excite either our left flank or our minority base, but would excite the hell out of the Christo-Fascists on the other side), and I wouldn’t want to see him doing so well that he becomes the moderate frontrunner-apparent.
Bloomberg
I was hopeful Bloomberg would be an exciting Door No 3, someone who could beat Trump at his own game, but after he showed himself not to have the necessary presence and showmanship for the job, I am just hoping he bows out as soon as possible, leaving his money and his magnificent ad team in the fight.
Klobuchar and Steyer
I was hopeful for Amy to get some traction, but she’s only polling at 5% in my state. Go for it, if she’s doing better in your state.
Steyer is actually my favorite of the remaining candidates, in the fantasy “which of these would you most want to be president” contest. But he is polling nowhere near viability.
Warren
For all my focus on nominating a moderate, I really like Warren. Were the positions reversed between her and Bernie, I’d be sorely tempted to support her. And she does takes some momentum and money away from Bernie, so her continued viability is a plus in that respect.
Having said, in the likely scenario of a brokered convention, at the end of the day, I think her pledged delegates, once unleashed, go to Bernie. So, sadly, I can’t give her my vote.
Please let me hear your thoughts, and especially any corrections to my understanding of the rules, the polls or basic math. Thanks all.