According to current projections at 538, the most likely outcome of the Democratic Primaries are that no one will have a majority of the pledged delegates when all of the contests have finished. That prospect comes up in 59% of the simulations.
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/…
So where does that leave us? Let’s first take a closer look at where we’re at right now. Of course these numbers will change, but they’re what we have to work with right now.
After all of the primaries are finished, 538 projects Sanders to have an average of 1,701 delegates. Biden will have 1,292 and in third place is Bloomberg, who will come in with an average of 568 (I think that’s an overestimate, but that’s what we have to work with so we’ll stick with those numbers).
Sanders is “winning” in that scenario, but doesn’t have a majority. From my understanding of the rules, candidates are free to permit their delegates to vote for another candidate on the first ballot. Now we know Bloomberg doesn’t want Sanders to gain the nomination, so I’m assuming he will instruct his delegates to vote for Biden, that puts Biden into the lead with 1,860 delegates, however, that’s still not a majority.
For sake of discussion, let’s say Warren, who is projected to be carrying 196 delegates into the convention instructs her delegates to vote for Sanders. That moves Sanders back into the lead with 1,897 delegate, still short of the 1991 needed for a first ballot majority.
And that brings us to Buttigieg and Klobuchar, who according to the current projection at 538 will have 159 and 62 delegates respectively. Again, because we’re simply projecting, I think based on their debate comments they would both want their delegates to vote for Biden. And with those delegates moving into the Biden column, we have are majority candidate on the first ballot, Joe Biden with 2,081 delegates.
It seems to me, that if I were a candidate and had invested this much time and effort into the race and it looks like it may be a contested convention, I would want to stay in this race as long as possible, to gain as many delegates as I can get. By gaining delegates, I would put myself into a better position to have a say at the convention.
After all, isn’t that what Sanders did in ‘16, use his position as someone who held a lot of delegates, to fight for a more favorable platform? In this case, might these candidates be trading their delegates for valuable concessions from the nominee?
Thoughts?