Welcome to the April 2020 edition of BeloitDem’s congressional race ratings! All seats not listed in the table below are considered safe for the party that currently holds them, except for NC-2 and NC-6, which are rated safe Democratic pickup. Bolded seats are currently held by Republicans, while italicized ones are currently held by Democrats. Explanations for my rating changes are below the fold. As always, feel free to quibble (but please don’t litigate the Dem Presidential primary though the guise of which candidates you think would do better in which states, that’s not what this diary is about).
ELECTORAL COLLEGE
Likely d |
lean D |
tossup |
lean r |
likely R |
CO
ME
NV
VA
|
PA
MI
NH
|
AZ
FL
NC
ME-02
NE-02
WI
|
GA
IA
MN
|
OH
TX
NE-01
|
GOVERNORS
Likely D |
Lean D |
Tossup |
Lean R |
Likely R |
|
NC-GOV |
|
MT-GOV
NH-GOV
|
MO-GOV
VT-GOV
|
SENATE
likely d |
lean d |
tossup |
lean r |
likely r |
MN-SEN
NH-SEN
VA-SEN
|
CO-SEN
KY-SEN
|
AZ-SEN
NC-SEN
|
GA-SEN A
GA-SEN-B
IA-SEN
MI-SEN
|
AK-SEN
AL-SEN
KS-SEN
ME-SEN
MT-SEN
TX-SEN
|
HOUSE
likely d |
lean d |
tossup |
lean r |
likely r |
AZ-2
CA-7
CA-21
CA-45
CA-49
CO-6
CT-5
FL-7
FL-27
FL-13
IL-6
MN-3
NH-1
NJ-5
NV-4
OR-4
PA-6
PA-17
PA-8
VA-10
WI-3
|
AZ-1
CA-10
CA-25
CA-39
CA-48
FL-26
GA-6
IA-1
IA-2
IA-3
IL-14
KS-3
MI-11
MI-8
MN-2
NJ-7
NJ-11
NV-3
NY-19
PA-7
TX-7
TX-23
TX-32
VA-2
WA-8
|
AZ-6
GA-7
ME-2
MO-2 (Tilt R)
NE-2
NJ-2 (Tilt R)
NJ-3 (Tilt D)
NM-2
NY-11 (Tilt D)
NY-22
OK-5
PA-1
SC-1
TX-24
UT-4 (Tilt D)
VA-7
|
IL-13
MI-3
MI-6
MN-7
NY-2
NY-24
PA-10
TX-10
TX-21
TX-22
WA-3
|
AK-AL
CA-22
CA-50
CO-3
FL-15
FL-16
FL-18
FL-25
IA-4
IN-5
IL-12
KS-2
KY-6
MI-7
MN-1
MN-8
MT-AL
NC-8
NY-1
NY-21
NY-27
OH-1
OH-10
OH-12
OH-14
PA-16
TX-2
TX-31
VA-5
WI-1
WI-6
WI-7
WI-8
|
Tossup to Likely R:
ME-SEN: I know we’ve seen some good polling recently, but we need to take a good hard look at the history here. Susan Collins has won her last three races by expanding double digits, winning her last race in 2014 by 37 points against a mainstream Democrat. While Collins has attracted some criticism back home over her votes to confirm Brett Kavanaugh and acquit Donald Trump, once Collins gets her message out voters will be assuaged by fact that she was very concerned about these things before voting the party line anyways.
Lean D or Lean R:
MN-PRES: After a close call in 2016, Democrats won statewide in Minnesota by decent margins in 2018. However, in doing so, they unfortunately handed Republicans the ultimate weapon. Donald Trump will win this heavily white midwestern state despite mediocre approval ratings by repeatedly attacks attacking freshman Congresswoman Ilhan Omar.
MI-SEN: Between Donald Trump’s excellent COVID-19 outreach to Michigan and John James’s star power, Gary Peters is looking pretty doomed.
Safe R to Leans D:
KY-SEN: I really wasn’t too keen on this race at first, but when I heard about Amy McGrath’s BRILLIANT strategy of running ads in New York for her Kentucky race, I was sold!