The NYT has printed a brief in their continued COVID-19 coverage about an internal estimate from the CDC on what might transpire with the current waves of reopening of the States. This is accompanied by an upload of the CDC report (marked For Official Use Only — FOUO) in PDF form. The graphic above is a screenshot of part of page 11 in that file.
Now, those of us here who have been following the pandemic know that more than one model has been issued by independent sources in academia illustrating similar growth rates in cases and likely deaths once (too) early reopening occurs. This is the first time I have seen something like this from the CDC.
It is worth focussing on the growth rates implied here. First, the CDC also estimates a growth in cases per day, reaching as high as 200,000 new cases per day by June 1, on a continued upward trend. Second, the CDC estimates that new deaths per day, by June 1 may double, with the greatest growth in new deaths per day arising after mid-month. Third, that would be the modeled growth in new deaths per day — which is, in truth, not comforting. Look at the red line above, then see if the blue dots (actual reported deaths per day) are scattered around the modeled trace or are consistently above the trace.
Clearly, actual reports are above the modeled fatalities on a routine basis. Notably, for those who take the time to open the uploaded CDC document, at int.ny.com, their new cases model hews closer to actual reported values.
Which I currently take to mean that the CDC’s internal modeling is acing new case projections and missing, on the downside, the magnitude of the CFR. Given 200,000 new cases per day by June 1, the possible new death rate two to three weeks thereafter may be shockingly high — and on an upward trend.
Finally, a word on what this means concerning Trump’s ever-shifting goalposts of pandemic response. Last we heard, during his tongue-bath at the LIncoln Memorial, he was allowing that we might get 100,000 deaths. That would be his new “win” for the whole tragic epidemic. Which would be reached, easily, before the end of May if CDC’s (possibly optimistic) projection of new deaths on reopening holds to the modeled line.
Most significantly, that date of June 1,2020 is well before any end to this pandemic is in sight. Last — this dataset has surely been shared with Captain Clorox — perhaps even before the “town hall” at Lincoln Memorial. He cannot claim that this is a surprise to him, he cannot justify supporting the reopening on a public health basis, at all.