Welcome to the May 2020 edition of BeloitDem’s congressional race ratings! All seats not listed in the table below are considered safe for the party that currently holds them, except for NC-2 and NC-6, which are rated safe Democratic pickup. Bolded seats are currently held by Republicans, while italicized ones are currently held by Democrats. Explanations for my rating changes are below the fold. As always, feel free to quibble
ELECTORAL COLLEGE
Likely d |
lean D |
tossup |
lean r |
likely R |
CO
ME
NV
VA
|
MI
MN
NH
|
AZ
FL
NC
ME-02
NE-02
PA (Tilt D)
WI
|
GA
IA
|
OH
TX
NE-01
|
GOVERNORS
Likely D |
Lean D |
Tossup |
Lean R |
Likely R |
NC-GOV |
|
|
MT-GOV
NH-GOV
VT-GOV
|
MO-GOV
|
SENATE
likely d |
lean d |
tossup |
lean r |
likely r |
MN-SEN
NH-SEN
VA-SEN
|
CO-SEN
MI-SEN
|
AZ-SEN (Tilt D)
ME-SEN
NC-SEN
|
GA-SEN A
GA-SEN-B
IA-SEN
MT-SEN
|
AK-SEN
AL-SEN
KS-SEN
TX-SEN
|
HOUSE
likely d |
lean d |
tossup |
lean r |
likely r |
AZ-2
CA-21
CA-45
CA-49
CO-6
CT-5
FL-7
FL-27
FL-13
IL-6
KS-3
MN-3
NH-1
NJ-5
NV-4
OR-4
PA-6
PA-17
PA-8
VA-10
WI-3
|
AZ-1
CA-10
CA-25
CA-39
CA-48
FL-26
GA-6
IA-1
IA-2
IA-3
IL-14
MI-11
MI-8
MN-2
NJ-7
NJ-11
NV-3
NY-19
PA-7
TX-7
TX-23
TX-32
VA-2
WA-8
|
AZ-6
GA-7
ME-2
MO-2 (Tilt R)
NE-2
NJ-2 (Tilt R)
NJ-3 (Tilt D)
NM-2
NY-11 (Tilt D)
NY-22
OK-5
PA-1
SC-1
TX-24
UT-4 (Tilt D)
VA-7
|
IL-13
MI-3
MI-6
MN-7
NY-2
NY-24
OH-1
PA-10
TX-10
TX-21
TX-22
WA-3
|
AK-AL
CA-22
CA-50
CO-3
FL-15
FL-16
FL-18
FL-25
IA-4
IN-5
IL-12
KS-2
KY-6
MI-7
MN-1
MN-8
MT-AL
NC-8
NY-1
NY-21
NY-27
OH-10
OH-12
OH-14
PA-16
TX-2
TX-31
VA-5
WI-1
WI-6
WI-7
WI-8
|
Lean D to Likely D:
NC-GOV: We’ve had like half a dozen polls showing Roy Cooper absolutely romping Dan Forrest by like 15 points despite a close Presidential race. Something really weird would have to happen for an upset to occur at this point.
Likely R to Leans R:
OH-1: The drip drip of Chabot’s legal troubles has been heating up.