Lean D to Likely D:
CA-39: Haha no.
TX-32: If the statewide polls we’re seeing of Texas are at all accurate, Biden’s winning the one by at least a half a dozen points, so it’s hard to see how Allred loses.
Tossup / Tilt D to Leans D:
AZ-PRES: More good polling for Biden.
PA-PRES: Hahaha massive national poll lead go brrrr.
Tossup to Tossup / Tilt D:
FL-PRES: The olds like them some Biden. Also, polls.
Tossup to Lean D:
WI-PRES: A lot of polls showing pretty sizable Biden leads.
Lean R to Tossup / Tilt R:
GA-PRES: Lots of polls showing the race basically tied.
GA-SEN A: Ultimately I think there’s an annoying high chance this goes to runoff and we lose it, but polling here has definitely improved in the last couple months.
IA-SEN: I’m suspicious of Iowa polling, but we’ve had few polls at this point showing Greenfield outrunning Biden.
Lean R to Tossup:
MT-GOV: We landed pretty much the best possible general election matchup here.
Lean R to Likely R:
NH-GOV: Sununu’s had some really good polls.
VT-GOV: Scott has sky-high approval ratings and Zuckerman had some not great comments about vaccines.
Likely R to Leans R
CO-3: As of this morning, Republicans are now running a far right rando in this seat instead of an established incumbent. It's still a pretty tough seat for us, though.
IN-5: No, I don’t really believe that poll, but I can’t really completely ignore it, either.
MN-1: Still think we come up short, but we’ve seen some decent polling here recently.
OH-PRES: I’m suspicious of Ohio polling, but I can’t really keep it at Likely R with polls mostly showing the race basically tied here.
TX-PRES: We’ll be improving substantially in Texas over 2016, the question is if it will be enough.
Safe R to Likely R:
SC-SEN: Biden might actually do well enough here that this race is winnable.
TX-3: Moving the “next tier” of Texas seats onto the board, because national environment.
TX-6: See above
TX-25: See above
Likely R to Safe R:
IA-4: This seat was only plausibly competitive because of Steve King, and he lost his primary.
NE-01 PRES: Fine, you guys win.