Likely D to Safe D:
CA-45: Katie Porter being a badass got this race moved to Likely D. Greg Raths being a dumpster fire got moved to safe.
CT-5: In a different year this might be competitive. Not this one.
MN-3: Biden’s margins in suburban Hennepin are going to be comically huge.
Lean D to Likely D:
MI-SEN: MI-SeN iS a ToSsUp JoHn JaMeS SuPeRsTaR!
MI-11: The Republican field to take on Stevens is a joke.
MN-2: Angie Craig’s opponent literally just released an internal poll showing him down 9 with a lefty third party candidate taking 6%.
NJ-11: Sherill is a strong incumbent and this seat is zooming left.
NV-4: The Hosford scandal doesn’t seem to have had legs.
NY-19: NRCC Recruitment fail. Maybe they should have actually found someone here instead of throwing monthly fundraisers for Lucy McBath.
Tossup / Tilt D to Lean D:
NJ-3: David Ritcher is not that impressive.
NY-11: The money race here is just crazy lopsided, and Rose has been making a name for himself.
Tossup to Lean D:
NC-SEN: Lots of polls showing Cunningham outrunning Biden.
VA-7: Hahaha continuing rapid suburban realignment go brrr. Also Abigail Spanberger has established herself well.
Tossup to Tossup / Tilt D:
NM-2: Yvette Harrell is a hot mess.
Tossup to Lean R:
MT-GOV: After seeing a few polls showing Gianforte up a bit, I’m readjusting my priors a bit.
Tossup / Tilt R to Tossup Tilt D:
MO-2: Considering some of the polling we’ve seen out of Missouri recently, Biden is probably winning the district by a bit, and we have an S-tier candidate here.
Lean R to Tossup:
TX-21: I’m now on board with the idea the Biden is probably winning this district, and Chip Roy continues to be an ass.
TX-22: mostly readjusting my priors on what this district will look like at the top of the ballot in light of recent polling.
Lean R to Tossup / Tilt R:
NY-24: Dana Balter is not a great candidate. It’s beginning to look like Biden may win the district by enough that it may not matter.
TX PRES: Let’s all do the rapid suburban realignment dance!
Likely R to Lean R:
KS-2: Even if Watkins loses his primary, the tea leaves are showing Biden doing well enough in Kansas that he probably isn’t too far behind in this district.
MT-AL: We’ve seen a couple polls showing this one basically tied at this point. I sorta doubt it holds through Election Day, but it doesn’t belong in the Likely column anymore.