Newly Rated State Notes:
Arkansas: Map hasn’t passed yet but looks pretty final, AR-2 looks pretty much out of reach but not totally out of the realm of something weird happening.
Indiana: Map mostly maintains status quo while taking some Dem pickup opportunities off the board (especially the 5th)
Nebraska: We basically got a status quo map partisanship wise.
Oregon: Kotek got us a pretty good map.
Texas: ...it could have been worse.
Unrated to Safe D:
IN-07, OR-1, OR-3, TX-7, TX-9, TX-16, TX-18, TX-20, TX-29, TX-30, TX-32, TX-33, TX-34, TX-35, TX-37
Unrated to Likely D:
IN-1: Mvran should probably be fine, but as a Biden 12+ district that trended R from 2016, it looks plausibly competitive if things get bad.
OR-4: DeFazio gets showed up but it’s still plausibly competetive
OR-5: District is Biden + 9 and trending blue.
OR-6: Should probably be fine but it’s an open seat and Brown only won it by 2 tenths of a point.
TX-28: Should be fine regardless of who wins the primary, but it is only Biden +7
Likely D to Leans D:
CO-8: The district is half a dozen points redder than the pre-census draft was and while it still tilts blue it will likely be a very competitive race.
Unrated to Tossup:
TX-15: They could have made this district much, much, worse. I guess they decided that they didn’t really want to test how low the Supreme Court would let them drop the Latino % here?
Unrated to Leans R:
NE-2: Biden seat but Don Bacon seems to have built up an annoying amount of crossover appeal for some reason *grumbles in general direction of the Ashfords*
Likely R to Leans R:
CO-3: The district is half a dozen points bluer than the draft, still tough.
Unrated to Likely R:
AR-2: Trump +13, so we probably need some sort of major scandal for this one to pan out.
NE-1: Seat is on the edge of competitiveness if things get good for us.
TX-23: Could get interesting if Latinos snap back but even then every statewide Republican in the last decade won this district and Tony Gonzalez is probably a strong incumbent.
TX-24: Trump +12 probably means it’s off the board this cycle, but Republicans are playing with fire by keeping the seat entirely in the inner suburbs and not giving it rural turf considering trends.
Safe R to Likely R:
CO-4: If Douglas County keeps trending blue this district could get interesting, but probably not this cycle.
Unrated to Safe R:
AR-1, AR-3, AR-4, IN-2, IN-3, IN-4, IN-5, IN-6, IN-8, IN-9, OR-2, TX-1, TX-2, TX-3, TX-4, TX-5, TX-6, TX-8, TX-10, TX-11, TX-12, TX-13, TX-14, TX-17, TX-19, TX-12, TX-22, TX-25, TX-26, TX-27, TX-31, TX-36, TX-38