Newly Rated State Notes:
Illinois: After a few tenuous attempts, legislative Dems finally settled on a decent gerrymander.
Iowa: Unfortunately the legislature rejecting the first map got them a much more Republican friendly proposal the second time around.
North Carolina: Let the next decade of litigation begin!
Utah: As expected Utah Republicans cracked the shit out of Salt Lake City.
Unrated to Safe D: IL-1, IL-2, IL-3, IL-4, IL-5, IL-7, IL-8, IL-9, IL-10, IL-11, NC-4, NC-6, NC-9
Unrated to Likely D:
IL-6: The primary will be interesting here. The general probably won’t be
IL-14: If Lauren Underwood is having trouble here we are in deep shit, but It’s not completely out of the realm of possibility.
IL-13: New downstate urban seat is PROBABLY strong enough to elect a Dem without much trouble.
Unrated to Lean D:
IL-17: This district got shored up a bunch and will probably be fine, but it’s still the Dem district I’d be least surprised to see fall in IL.
NC-2: I’m putting it here instead of tossup because the federal courts might rule that the configuration they drew is a VRA violation. Not crossing my fingers with this SCOTUS, though.
Unrated to Tossup:
IA-3: The district is close, even if the kept the bullshit crack of the De Monies metro.
Lean D to Tossup:
NH-1: Arguably should have been hear all along, but we actually have the map now and they drew a Trump +2 district. Stays at Tossup instead of Lean R based on Pappas’ incumbency.
Unrated to Lean R:
IA-1: Miller-Meeks is definitely favored in the new map but it’s still somewhat competitive.
Lean R to Likely R:
MT-1/WEST: The district wound up towards the more Republican end of plausible configurations.
Unrated to Likely R:
IA-2: The national environment would have to get a fair bit better for us to be seriously talking about this seat.
NC-4: If the national environment gets a lot better this district could be interesting.
NC-11: This is basically a placeholder for “North Carolina Supreme Court orders them to uncrack Greensboro in time for the election.”
NC-14: District is probably just beyond the cusp of competitiveness giving normal circumstances but I feel the odds of Cawthorn having some pretty ugly skeletons in his closet are… higher than average.
Unrated to Safe R: IL-12, IL-15, IL-16, IA-4, UT-1, UT-2, UT-3, UT-4