Newly Rated State Notes:
Colorado: We have a preliminary map from the commission.
Connecticut: The level of variation on what we can expect to see from the Connecticut map is pretty minimal.
Minnesota: Since Minnesota managed to avoid losing a seat and we’ll be getting a court map again, I’m expecting relatively little change beyond the metro districts contracting some because that’s where the growth has been.
Montana: Montana has an independent commission and there’s only so many ways the state can be drawn, well probably get a district that’s less red than the state in the West and more red than the state in the East.
Virginia: Virginia has a commission (sigh, thanks Saslaw) and is keeping the same number of seats, so between that and VRA we can make a pretty good guess at what the map will look like.
Wisconsin: Split partisan control and Vos hates Evers’s guts so we’re definitely looking at a court map here. Biggest question mark is the exact borders of the 3rd, I’m expecting it to lose the Stevens Point arm and get a point or two redder, but whether it takes in more of the Driftless area to compensate or redder turf from the 7th matters some.
Unrated to Safe D:
CO-1, CO-2, CO-6 MN-4, MN-5, VA-3, VA-4, VA-8, VA-10, VA-11, WI-2, WI-4
Unrated to Likely D:
CO-7: This district moves substantially to the right and becomes the closest district in the state, but it’s blue leaning enough that Perlmutter is probably fine.
CO-8: Biden won the new district by 11 points.
CT-2: Weirder things have happened. I suspect this will probably move to Safe D by Election Day
CT-5: This is the most Republican-friendly area of Connecticut, but Jahana Hayes is a strong incumbent.
MN-3: Minneapolis’s suburbs are zooming left.
Likely D to Lean D:
VA-GOV: I’m not gonna just ignore the polls showing a close-ish race because I don’t like them.
Unrated to Lean D:
MN-2: This district can be tricky sometimes but Craig should probably be OK unless things get bad.
Unrated to Tossup:
VA-2: This is a tough district but Luria has proven somewhat resilient.
VA-7: See above.
WI-3: This district’s shift right in the Trump era is going to catch up to Kind eventually
Unrated to Lean R:
MT-WEST: We don’t know exactly how the lines will be drawn, but most of the more Democratic parts of the state are in the west which probably means a Trump + single digits district.
Unrated to Likely R:
CO-3: The district loses Pueblo and gets a bit redder, but if anyone can figure out how to still lose it it Beobert.
C0-5: Probably won’t happen this cycle, but Trump only won it by 11 points and the district is heavily suburban so if trends continue it could be competitive especially later in the decade.
MN-1: Rochester and Mankato probably aren’t enough to make up for the rapidly reddening rural areas.
MN-8: This district is getting pretty damn red.
VA-1: Biden did relatively well in this district and it is likely to get slightly more NoVa-centric.
VA-5: The rural turf is probably to red but I’m leary to completely count out the district that includes Charlottesville.
WI-1: I think it’s more likely than not that this district loses some of Wuakesha and gets a few points bluer, but Brian Stiel seems to be pretty popular.
WI-6: This district might get interesting if we have a good year.
WI-8: Probably borders on safe unless Gallagher runs for Senate, which is a real possibility.
Unrated to Safe R:
MN-6, MN-7, VA-6, VA-9, WI-5, WI-7
MT-EAST: We don’t know how the commission will draw the lines yet, but most of the Democratic parts of the state are in the west.