Welcome to the September 2021 edition of BeloitDem’s 2022 congressional race ratings! I’m switching to a monthly schedule because we’re about to start seeing a lot more actual House districts. All seats not listed in the table below are considered safe for the party that currently holds them. All single-party general elections not listed are considered safe for the incumbent. Bolded seats are currently held by Republicans, while italicized ones are currently held by Democrats. Unformatted seats represent seats with no clear predecessor district. Explanations for changes below the fold As always, feel free to quibble.
GOVERNORS
CA-GOV
CO-GOV
CT-GOV
IL-GOV
OR-GOV
MD-GOV
NJ-GOV
NM-GOV
RI-GOV
ME-GOV
MN-GOV
NV-GOV
VA-GOV
AZ-GOV
GA-GOV
KS-GOV
MI-GOV
PA-GOV
WI-GOV
NH-GOV
MA-GOV
FL-GOV
IA-GOV
OH-GOV
SC-GOV
TX-GOV
VT-GOV
SENATE
CO-SEN
NV-SEN
AZ-SEN
GA-SEN
NH-SEN
PA-SEN
WI-SEN
NC-SEN
FL-SEN
IA-SEN
OH-SEN
MO-SEN
Likely Murkowski: AK-SEN
Note on house ratings: States will be added to the House rating list on a case by case basis. Intially, I’m just rating at large seats and seats where the range of possible redistricting results is narrow enough to allow a reasonable approximation of a rating. A table of which states have been rated and which states haven’t is below the rating table.
HOUSE
CO-7
CO-8
CT-2
CT-5
MN-3
MN-2
NH-1
NH-2
NV-3
NV-4
ME-2
VA-2
VA-7
MT-WEST
WI-3
AK-AL
CO-3
CO-4
MN-1
MN-8
VA-1
VA-5
WI-1
WI-6
WI-8
Safe D to Likely D:
CA-GOV: This is baking in the potential for recall weirdness, assuming the recall fails I’ll probably be moving it back to safe next month.
Lean D to Tossup:
MI-GOV: Whitmer’s approvals have come down some from her COVID highs and she’s earned at least one serious opponent.
Tossup to Lean R: WI-3: This seat is probably getting a little redder in redistricting and will be a tough hold with Kind’s retirement.